Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 03-06-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's opening 3-point surge to 2282.00 was reversed by a 7-1./2 point plunge that attacked the 2373.75 overnight lows to within 2 ticks. So, its 2372.25 late bias-down target became "unfinished business below." Trending back up to probe a couple of points above the morning's high was interrupted once by a wide swing between 2276.00-2281.00 that suggests volatility is expanding. But a sell signal came too late to produce a break back under Thursday's 2280.25 close. Overnight action's new info... The bullish scenario that I described in Friday's Market Wrap is trying to play out. Trump's Saturday morning tweets may take some credit, undermining his legislative agenda, including tax reform that inspired much of the rally. North Korea firing four rockets stirred the pot. Either catalyst will suffice. Sunday night's open plunged to 2 points under Thursday night's 2373.75 low, and quickly bounced back up to it. Hours of ranging there narrowly greeted Europe's opens, where a new dip touched 2268.75. Now its reaction up is testing 2276.00. If, then... A fresh low became likely after Friday's failure to reverse its fresh trend lows back above the morning's high. And while a shallow dip to 2372.25 could have resolved the pullback, the delay would likely be compensated by extending down to 2368.50. Which has been tested to within 1 tick. Isolating it to the overnight would likely reverse momentum up, potentially extending to new highs targeting 2405.50 and 2418.00. Otherwise, not already recovering at the open should extend down to test 2364.00, too. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2377.75 would be likely to avoid triggering the 2375.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2373.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] Sorry, the online dictation facility was not responding this morning.

Probing under last week's lows. Retracing the overnight bounce to 2376.25 greeted the open under Thursday night and lows. The probe under Friday's intraday lows would not be isolated to the overnight. An intraday test of 2368.50 became likely, making early-entry compelling. The open did extend down quickly to touch 2368.50. Only 3-minute RSI became oversold before its reaction bounced up to test 2373.25. The 2375.00 bias-down signal was triggered easily. 2368.50 is being probed down to 2367.25. That wasn't necessary, so its retest is likely to be probed down to 2364.00-2365.00. Regardless, now that Friday's low is being probed, there is potential for this morning to contain the pullback's low. Not bottoming today would suggest a much deeper pullback underway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2376.00 2375.25 ...would target  2382.00  2381.25 Bias-down: under  2367.00 2366.25 ...would target  2360.25  2359.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The pullback seems to be done. "Unfinished business below" from Friday at 2372.25 was met by Sunday night's plunge. "Lower prior highs" at 2368.50 was met overnight and by Monday's opening dip. Fresh lows later probed down to 2367.00. Exiting the bias environment back above the 2368.50 bias-down target robbed the decline of its momentum. Potential for extending down to 2364.00 may be neutralized. All downside objectives are now neutralized.

Is the pullback done? Entering the noon hour above another the morning's 2375.00 bias-down signal would have been optimal confirmation. It was eventually touched along with this afternoon's 2375.25 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. They're being probed by more than 1 point.

So, the grace period is invoked. Exceeding 2375.25 through 1:30 would trigger late bias-up. Holding its test could delay extending higher for another hour, assuming 2374.00 had held tests as support.

What should have happened Monday, did, whether to end the pullback or to extend the decline. Unfinished business below was neutralized at 2372.25 and 2368.50. Potential to lower lows was rescued by exiting the bias environment high enough. What could have happened for extending the decline did not happen, since all unfinished business below is neutralized. And what needed to happen for reversing the pullback may have begun. The afternoon's rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour and then trending to fresh highs through 3:10-3:20. Monday's close was still negative, but that's not necessarily bearish. Last Tuesday's negative close reflected a vacuum back up to unchanged, which was leveraged into a gargantuan rally. After recovering 2381.50, extending higher would encounter resistance on the way to objectives at 2404.50 and 2418.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2378.25 2377.50 ...would target  2384.50  2383.75 Bias-down: under  2370.75  2370.00 ...would target 2365.00  2364.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.