Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 03-12-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Wednesday''s gap up didn''t retrace all of Tuesday''s late break, and the open eventually resolved in a fresh low at 2032.00. Its recovery attempt into the noon hour at 2040.500 failed back down to 2032.00, as did another recovery attempt. The last failure probed slightly lower to 2030.75, ending the cash session at 2032.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
A retest of 2030.75 launched a rally back up to 2040.50. Its reaction is down has tested and retested 

If, then...
[FRONT-MONTH ROLLS FORWARD AT TODAY''S OPEN TO JUN (M)]. Yesterday''s repeated probes under prior lows all stopped short of their potential to 2029.75 (2037.00 basis Mar). That optimism can be bearish from a contrarian perspective, making 2029.75 vulnerable to being probed considerably. While its test probably can no longer be avoided, it can be delayed by gapping up and through above yesterday afternoon''s 2041.00 high to try forming a "session-long rally" setup.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2043.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2040.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and above 2037.00 at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2029.25 bias-down signal.

Up, up and a weight.

The 2039.00 open didn''t hesitate surging to the 2043.00 pre-open high and extending sharply higher to 2051.25. Bias-up was triggered, renewed, and doubly-renewed. The next higher target in-play is 2053.00.

And having maintained a gap up above yesterday afternoon''s high, this is a "session-long rally." Each timing window except one (usually the noon hour) should probe above its prior timing window.

Which is all pretty bullish. So bullish, that it risks coming full-circle and inverting to become bearish.

A lot of buying pressure was expended already through the open. Not exceeding it during this morning''s bias environment would start to suggest it had borrowed all future buying pressure. And that would leave none available to extend higher, or to defend against momentum reversing down.

If not for the session-long rally signal, we would be forecasting a reversal down. Instead, we''re just monitoring for it.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2062.25
2054.75
...would target 2067.50
2060.00
Bias-down: under 2054.25
2046.75
...would target 2049.00
2041.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite initially probing fresh lows overnight testing 1.0495 and not fulfilling potential to 1.0430, Thursday''s open had recovered to gap up above 1.0590. Holding it as support intraday would allow closing above 1.0550 to signal momentum reversing up, even if only for a temporary correction up to 1.0780.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday''s firm open still needed to retest 1148.00 intraday, which was accomplished, but the close was only attacking 1154.00 instead of recovering it. That potential buy setup didn''t complete, but extending higher through Friday morning to recover 1161.00 would compensate for Thursday''s delay. There is no unfinished business below, but not exploiting that by noon Friday would be likely instead to extend the decline.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday without having both probed and rejected fresh lows overnight didn''t extend, and only ranged around its opening print. A fresh low can''t be discounted, or at least filling the gap back to Wednesday''s close, before being allowed to rally near-term.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday''s close above the bounce limit firmed overnight, and Thursday''s reaction to econ reports spiked up to 160-26. The reaction down to 159-00 needed to recover the 159-12/159-24 pullback limit (which was being tested into the afternoon) to confirm a bigger rally leg is underway.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday''s fresh low at 47.40 had reacted up to 48.60. But despite firming further overnight, Thursday''s flat open resumed Wednesday morning''s drop. Regardless of whether Thursday''s fresh lows probing under 47.00 have fulfilled the required third lower close, the pattern''s likely objective is to probe fresh lows under 44.00 or lower.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s EIA report wasn''t being greeted from a position of strength, having closed above the 2.77 buy signal only Wednesday, and holding a test of the 2.84 confirmation. The reaction down tested 2.77 as support. Now, recovering 2.84 would be needed to signal a rally leg underway.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX0 ES Bias-up: above 2067.75
2060.00
...would target 2072.50
2066.00
Bias-down: under 2059.00
2051.50
...would target 2054.50
2046.75
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.