VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Market Pre-Open Plan - 7:38 AM
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Previously : Wed's night's 3948 reversed down through Europe's opens and into Thu's first 15 minutes to 3895. A bounce to 3919-3922 defined a range that met and triggered bias-down. But recovering its 3911 bias-down signal extended sharply higher through the noon hour to 3996. Its reaction down to 3970 recovered entirely up to 4000.
Overnight price points : Globex immediately slipped back down to 3988 to range sideways. Firming at midnight extended through Europe's opens to 4009. And it was all retraced back down to 3979.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Quad Witch expiration, Banks - who's next, for how much?
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors, Expiration, Globex-flip.
Their influences : Two days of impending illiquidity affect behaviors in predictable ways, despite expiration's wild card influence... Having probed yesterday's highs overnight, exiting the open under the 3988-3994 Globex open's range would signal a morning downtrend.
Premise : Thu morning's abrupt reversal into its breakout from a 4-day range produced a 100-point intraday headline reaction that has yet to correct by even 38.2%, let alone by 61.8% -- either one being the norm. And now overnight action is threatening a second consecutive bearish Globex-flip. The last one turned out okay, but only after it had tested targets below. Absorbing another initial dip probably depends on reversing up sooner -- and that setup could be even more productive than yesterday's.
Alternative : The Friday Factors setup can exacerbate a signal's production today. Expiration's wild card can inject that reaction with steroids. And these setups are preparing to influence a weaker open. If all that potential bearishness still can't trigger a bearish setup at 9:45 or 10:15, then the bullish influence could exceed yesterday's. And without a single bank needing to fail and provide a bullish bailout headline -- just a little luck of the Irish.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4037, 4077... DOWN: 3980, 3933, 3901.
Stock Market Opening Trends - 11:16 AM
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Previously : Globex immediately slipped back down to 3988 to range sideways. Firming at midnight extended through Europe's opens to 4009. Reversing back down extended back down to Globex's earlier lows.
New price points : The reversal extended sharply lower to 3957, finally retracing at least 61.8% of Thu's headline reaction. .
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Quad Witch expiration, Banks - who's next, for how much?.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED... Friday Factors, Expiration, Globex-flip.
Their influences : Friday morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour... Having probed yesterday's highs overnight, exiting the open under the 3988-3994 Globex open's range would signal a morning downtrend.
Triggers/Tactics : Bad news -- no bank failures today, so no bullish bailout headlines to trigger a relief rally. And as expected, Friday Factors and Expiration's wild card have injected the open's bearish setups with steroids. The next lower attraction is 3928-3929, still in the context of only correcting Thu's breakout rally. Under 3922 would suggest something more substantially bearish underway.
Alternative : The current extended target at 3947 was met, and then probed 2-3 times while RSIs diverged positively. Although Fri's bias tends to persist through the noon hour, just waiting out the window by ranging sideways off the lows could find the afternoon gravitating back up.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4037, 4077... DOWN: 3980, 3933, 3901.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3956, targeting 3972.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3936, targeting 3917.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Help - Mid-Day - 1:51 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
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Previously : Globex immediately slipped back down to 3988 to range sideways. Firming at midnight extended through Europe's opens to 4009. Reversing back down extended back down to Globex's earlier lows. The reversal extended sharply lower to 3957.
New price points : The A.M. bias window began lapsing at 3933 before bouncing into the noon hour to 3966, and ranging sideways into the P.M. bias window.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Quad Witch expiration, Banks - who's next, for how much?
Setups/Patterns : noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP... Friday Factors, Expiration.
Their influences : PM Drift -- Exiting the bias window under the noon hour's lows would likely trend down into the close.
Triggers/Tactics : Bouncing into the noon hour held up, but only to fluctuate around the 3956 bias-up signal without triggering or rejecting it. Earlier behaviors had opened the window wider and wider for an afternoon rally, but only triggering noN-bias keeps the door open too resuming the decline. And neither resolution need wait out the bias window.
Alternative : Still well-contained within yesterdays range to be considered only a correction, this afternoon may continue ranging here through the close.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4037, 4077... DOWN: 3980, 3933, 3901.
Market Summary - 4:32 PM
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THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW
Today's price points : Globex immediately slipped back down to 3988 to range sideways. Firming at midnight extended through Europe's opens to 4009. Reversing back down extended through Globex's earlier lows, extending to 3957. Bouncing through Fri's open was reversed down from 3993 to 3933. And the noon hour's bounce to 3966 was also reversed down to 3933.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Quad Witch expiration, Banks - who's next, for how much?.
Setups/Patterns : Expiration.
Their influences : Expiration's influence reaches into Mon morning, especially any tempo from Fri afternoon, which was lower in a range.
Premise : Only triggering noN-bias Fri afternoon had kept the door open too resuming the decline. The morning's 3933 low was pierced. And the afternoon only ranged off the lows. Which leaves the weekend's exit postured to extend Fri's decline.
Alternative : Buyers gained no traction for any effort Fri, so reversing Fri's correction to try resuming Thu's rally should begin by gapping up, and preferably recovering 3984 through the morning.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4037, 4077... DOWN: 3980, 3933, 3901.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3963, targeting 3977.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3937, targeting 3925.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.