Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 03-29-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Sunday night's rally hadn't skipped a beat since Thursday's pre-Easter weekend close, extending the intraday rally to attack 2040.00. That was retraced entirely before Monday's open, which the morning extended back down to 2022.00, retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the rally from Thursday morning's 2012.00 low. No relevant supports were broken, but sellers weren't trapped. Bouncing to 2034.00 during the afternoon's no-bias environment was retraced to 2027.00, closing back under Thursday's highs. Overnight action's new info... Relatively narrow choppy ranging back to 2033.50 suddenly launched a drop down to 2023.50. It might be in reaction to a plane hijacking, which it being reported as a domestic dispute. RSIs diverged into the low, but the drop seems pretty slow retracing since learning the hijacking is confined. If, then... With no unfinished business above, the open has little excuse to further delay resuming the pullback begun off of last week's highs. A "session-long decline" setup isn't possible, but gapping down under yesterday morning's lows would likely set a bearish tone for the day. By the same token, threatening to gap down, but avoiding it anyway, should at least retest Sunday night's high. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2027.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2024.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2022.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Post-open dip tries recovering too little, too late. The pre-open dip to 2020.75 was itself probed post-open down to 2019.25. Yesterday morning's 2023.00-2023.00 lows held as resistance through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Rather than extend down, a bounce has attacked 2027.00. Still overlapping the 2024.50 bias-down signal at both 10:15 and 10:30 has triggered noN-bias -- not a bias-down, and not a no-bias, so there is no requirement to fulfill any bias parameter.

The pattern is similar to yesterday. Not the formation, which is clearly different. But the template of remaining under a relevant level through a relevant timing window, and then trying to recover.

Like the rally from yesterday's lows, this morning's recovery attempt should be retraced entirely. Unlike yesterday's rally -- so long as the bias environment isn't exited above 2027.25 -- the failure should not be so delayed. The initial attraction below is 2020.75, and then essentially 2009.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)SPXESBias-up: above 2038.00 2028.50 ...would target 2042.75 2033.50Bias-down: under 2031.002021.75 ...would target 2024.75 2015.25Signal status:BIAS-UP, BIAS--UP TARGET EXCEEDEDFAQINTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Yellen reaction triggers extra surge. This morning's bias environment exit absorbed a test of 2027.25. It later served as the inflection point to a 7-point surge triggered by Fed Chair Yellen's remarks. That extended during the noon hour to touch Sunday night's 2039.75 high. 12-points into positive territory. Quite an improvement from this morning's 9-point probe into negative territory. But negative territory and 2027.25 weren't recovered until after the bias environment had lapsed. Extending higher later is likely to be retraced entirely. The noon hour's reaction down from 2039.75 touched this afternoon's 2033.50 bias-up target as support. A buy signal was triggered back above 2036.25 targeting the high's retest up to 2041.50. Back under 2033.50 would target 2029.50, and potentially lower.

1-minute and 3-minute RSIs didn't actually diverge negatively into the 2047.50 high. With the 1-minute, RSI had not been overbought since much earlier and a little lower. As for 3-minute, RSI barely left overbought territory. All of this developed upon touching last Tuesday's 2047.50 actual high. Just touching last Monday's 2044.50 pivotal high had required  testing 2047.50. Already neutralizing the higher attraction tends to undermine the upside momentum. All of this also developed while trending to fresh session highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. Barely. It was a net total of 2 ticks, or 6 ticks from high to low. The timing would complement the bias environment exit to reflect buyers gaining traction. Does 2-6 ticks deserve a benefit of the doubt for rewarding buyers with a Wednesday morning rally? Extending higher would next target 2051.00 and potentially 2056.25. Nothing requires maintaining a higher high. But Tuesday morning's probe under support through the opening windows does suggest a retest of its low. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2060.25 2051.00 ...would target  2065.25  2056.00 Bias-down: under  2050.75  2041.50 ...would target 2044.00  2034.75 Signal status: RENEWED BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.