Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 04-01-2015

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2072.00
2064.00
...would target 2078.50
2070.50
Bias-down: under 2062.50
2054.50
...would target 2056.00
2048.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...

Tuesday morning''s 2070.50 bias-down signal was invalidated, but its recovery peaked upon filling the gap back to Monday''s 2076.25 futures close. Exiting the bias environment back under 2070.50 negated the invalidation, eventually sliding to test 2060.25 support. The next lower objective at 2057.50 was tested into the futures close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Narrow ranging held 2060.25 as resistance into Asian markets'' opens. Suddenly, "positive" news sent them diving, taking S&Ps down to 2033.50 in just over an hour. It was a tough slug, but the entire drop was recovered to retest 2060.25. Its reaction down to 2051.25 is trying to recover 2054.50.

If, then...
Tuesday''s late break came moments too late to justify hold-short, unless planning to cover overnight, because "extending down overnight remains possible to recover before Wednesday''s open." My 2054.50 objective was probed by 22 points, but that doesn''t alter my pattern for reversing positive into Wednesday''s open.

Not opening positive would keep alive potential for repeating the overnight drop, albeit not as steeply, and not necessarily all the way back down. Opening positive must still extend, and would be likely to extend, optimally to close above yesterday''s 2076.25 high. In-line with the bigger picture we discussed during this weekend''s Saturday Review (see lower image, basis SPX), closing positive would all but ensure extending to new highs before the next credible downleg.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2057.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2054.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2068.00-2068.75 would be likely to trigger the 2064.00 bias-up signal.

Complete recovery completes.

The recovery back to unchanged got no further. Rallying to the open didn''t rally through the open, which plunged from 2059.00 to 2040.00. The reaction up held a test of the 2048.00 bias-down target''s resistance through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. But its renewed bias down target had been met already.

A dip seemed on its way to retesting oversold RSIs at the low, but fell only to 2043.00. I did not anticipate price inflecting back up there -- not at all, and certainly not through 2048.00 back to 2054.00. Its reaction down to 2050.00 is now recovered to attack 2054.00.

The leg that preceded it -- that damned leg, the surge from 2044.50.-- can still be rejected by extending under 2050.00 to  2046.50. Any lower would target fresh lows at 2039.00, 2037.50 and potentially 2030.50.

Otherwise, that damned leg can reject the market. It''s rare that price action doesn''t align with my signals in such a big way, and we don''t learn shortly of the external forces behind it.

Exiting the bias environment in positive territory is the only bottoming signal not requiring a retest of the low. And its follow-through would be substantial.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2073.25
2055.50
...would target 2068.00
2060.25
Bias-down: under 2054.25
2046.50
...would target 2048.50
2040.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS ,TESTED BIAS-DOW SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday delayed the pattern''s requirement for an eventual third lower close. Although 1.0855 wasn''t recovered, there is room up to 1.0900.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday''s rally probed above the 1194.00 buy signal to test 1208.00, next targeting a retest of last week''s highs above 1220.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having fulfilled its 16.45-16.60 pullback objective before Tuesday''s open, Wednesday rally isn''t yet reliable for extending higher without delay. Filling a gap without closing above it must be exceeded immediately Thursday to avoid a corrective dip.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having failed for three consecutive days to break back under 163-08 support, there became much greater likelihood for a bigger bounce to stretch the rubber band first. Wednesday''s open tested its potential to 164-30/165-08, but then extended above prior highs to 166-11. Closing back under 164-30/165-08 would trigger a Double Top pointing down to fresh lows.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still not trending down overnight, Wednesday surged to a fresh high above the 48.75 buy signal, and through 49.55 to confirm a bounce underway targeting at least a retest of last week''s 51.45-52.50 highs.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday finally produced the pattern''s required third lower close. Closing back above 2.64 would signal the downside momentum had lapsed.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2062.25
2054.50
...would target 2068.00
2060.25
Bias-down: under 2052.75
2045.00
...would target 2046.75
2039.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.