Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Gapping up 4-5 points Wednesday to 2787.75 didn't ensure trending up. Or snapping back down. Gapping up did foreshadow a bullish resolution to ranging choppily sideways until the afternoon's FOMC Minutes. The resolution wasn't immediate, and it was as choppy as the earlier range. But the day's second stage did eventually break higher touched the 2894.25 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the gap back up to Monday's close. A 5-point reaction down spiked back up at the close. Overnight action's new info... Like yesterday's second stage, choppiness has persisted, and it has resolved up. Wednesday's last-minute spike up had continued firming through the Globex open, extending to touch 2900.00. That was a retest of Monday night's high, where price had reacted down 7 points. Last night's reaction down was 8 points, which has already extended lower after bouncing into Europe's opens. But at 2890.00, another bounce began, its recovery now touching the earlier 2900.00 high. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Stop me if you've heard this one before: There's no "unfinished business" above, as 2902.00 is only likely to be touched. If anything was required, it was to reward Tuesday's buyers for absorbing Tuesay's late weak-handed pre-open drop to 2880.00 with a return to the drop's origin. That was 2900.00, and that was tested overnight, twice. Its intraday test would be more satisfying, as would a test of 2902.00 or higher, which now seems like only a formality. If/Whenever 2902.00 is tested, the pattern remains vulnerable to reversing down intraday -- suddenly, steeply, and substantially. Avoiding a reversal down or limiting its depth and duration could next target 2928.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2897.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2895.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2904.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2902.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2911.00.

Obligatory resistance is being attacked slowly. There's a fine line between strong-handed patience, and ineffectual optimism. The difference becomes clearer as pessimists reveal themselves. This morning's pessimists are preventing the overnight retests of 2900.00 from probing higher. Not even to 2902.00. But their reactions down are unable to gain traction.

Sellers did prevent triggering the 2895.00 bias-up signal. But its inverse didn't trigger no-bias. Instead, still testing the bias-up signal at 10:15 and 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. Neither the bias-up target above, nor an offsetting test of the bias-down signal below are required.

Trying to trend higher or lower is still possible, but not to satisfy an objective. Meanwhile, the first hours five 15-minute checkpoints all overlapped the same relevant 2895.00 level, forming a "Dry Cleaners morning" setup. It doesn't prevent trending either, but makes trending attempts difficult and likely to return to 2895.00.

Testing 2902.00 is still likely for its proximity, and for sellers not using the first hour to reverse from its obligatory resistance. Testing 2902.00 is still vulnerable to violent rejection, for the unstable base that is forming in the interim.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2892.00 2895.75 ...would target 2898.25 2902.00 Bias-down: under 2882.00 2886.00 ...would target 2877.00 2881.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Lower lows still not trending down. When this morning's bias environment began lapsing, its relatively narrow 2892.00-2897.00 range broke lower. Sharply. Suddenly and steeply, but not substantially. Just 2-3 minutes of plunging to 2885.25 ended it. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest.

Recovering up to 2892.00 through the noon hour has resolved down, too. Just not substantially, only attacking the low to within 5 ticks, leaving its oversold RSIs outstanding.

Ratcheting lower and lower could be considered trending, if not contained within a prior window. Like this moring's drop, which has only retraced to yesterday's last 60-90 minute low. Not quickly rejecting its retest could replace 2902.00's attraction above with a collapse below. Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment rallying above 2892.00 would be credible for extending back to and through session highs.

Retesting and re-retesting Monday night's 2900.00 high ahead of Thursday's open makes an eventual probe only a formality. Which might not seem credible after being under pressure throughout Thursday's session. And which might be rejected anyway if Thursday's 2886.00 support is breaking lower through Friday's open. Meanwhile, Thursday was the seventh consecutive session of intraday ranging, supported at or above 2880.00 or 2886.00. Extended narrowing ranges become vulnerable to breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. So, fresh highs up to 2902.00-2911.00 would be vulnerable to reversing down, and dipping 2874.00-2876.00 could snap back up above highs. Testing either limit without reversing would become more vulnerable to extending in that direction, especially being a Friday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2892.00 2895.75 ...would target 2898.25 2902.00 Bias-down: under 2883.75 2887.50 ...would target 2877.25 2881.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.