Market Pre-Open Strategy - 7:48 AM

Edit

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Responding to China''s drop, Greece''s ongoing Grexit and Bloomberg''s outage -- and attracted to a retest of Thursday''s 2089.00 pre-open low -- S&Ps plunged 15 points in Friday''s early morning hours. The open was greeted by a failed bounce that extended the drop another 18 points through the afternoon bias environment, totaling 34 points from Thursday''s close. The last timing window rallied 12 points to retrace almost all of the afternoon''s portion of the drop.

Overnight action''s new info...
China rallied sharply in reaction to easing bank reserve requirements. Greece may be getting $5 billion from Russia. And, Bloomberg hasn''t gone dark again. Sunday night''s open gapped up 5 points, and eventually added another 8 points to pierce 2089.00 by 3 ticks. That''s a Fibonacci 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back to Thursday''s high. And it is now reacting down to test 2083.00.

If, then...
Was Friday afternoon''s recovery enabled by the bullish WedEX expiration indicator? Then its influence on Monday morning should be aggressively bullish. Gapping up is irrelevant to the indicator -- trending up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would be highly reliable for trending up through the morning. By the same token, trending down through the open would invalidate the signal, if not invert it, in either case being attracted down to fill the gap back to Friday''s close.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2084.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2082.00 would be less likely to exceed the bias-up target in time to renew the signal.


Stock Market Opening Thoughts - 10:59 AM

Edit

Overnight rally has bled into intraday.

If the overnight rally were going to extend today, then there was no bullish reason to delay it much past the open. And it wasn''t. 

The opening bar touched the support of this morning''s 2084.50 bias-up target to prevent resuming the pre-open pullback. Its reaction up was steep and substantial. A half-hour later, the market was 10 points higher touching 2094.25.

That was the first time any RSI had diverged negatively. The reaction down to 2090.00 has been mostly recovered. Extending higher would next target 2095.25 (being probed now). Regardless, this is a bias-up environment, renewed by exceeding its bias-up target through 10:15.

The balance of the session could be much more productive than that.

Assuming that this morning''s bias environment continues hovering around 2094.00 highs, the bias environment''s exit would be well-positioned to resume the rally into the afternoon. Resuming the rally, at all, could extend significantly -- through 2097.50 would likely probe into the 2100''s.

The pattern is playing out in-line with the pre-open description, which means that I''m not considering sell signal. Exiting the bias environment back under this morning''s 2084.50 bias-up target might be the earliest that a sell signal could be considered.


Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 12:01 PM

Edit
MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2105.25
2098.25
...would target 2110.75
2104.00
Bias-down: under 2096.00
2089.25
...would target 2091.00
2084.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.


Daily Spot... Can crude catch an updraft? - 2:51 PM

Edit

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting down from Friday''s test of the 1.0855 target didn''t gap down enough Monday to signal the recovery reversing, but also didn''t recover enough to signal the rally had resumed. There is not currently an active signal, but at least a corrective dip to 1.0650 is underway so long as 1.0780 holds as resistance.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday''s test of 1205.00-1208.50 resistance reacted back down Sunday to test 1194.50 support, which was still being overlapped Monday and not decisively broken. But having tested and retested it already and already again, if its support were so solid, then it should not require so much testing before launching a recovery. Immediate strength would still be credible for extending higher, but now only back to recent highs around 1225.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday''s gap down to 16.10 support extended down to fresh lows intraday testing 15.85, which undermines the near-term recovery potential.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yet another single-session surge was retraced to a relevant level with Friday''s rally to 165-19 being retraced Monday morning down to 164-04, and then lower. Closing under 163-18 would re-signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from May to Jun]... A dip before Monday''s open was too late to gain traction, recovering back toward the recent high. The delay in fulfilling the 59.30 target (basis Jun, 57.90 basis May) is "ineffectual pessimism" that makes its eventual test likely to be probed on the way to 62.45.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday''s gap down to 2.54 support is the cheapest acceptable pricing for the recovery''s momentum to remain intact. And now there''s a gap outstanding back up to Friday''s close that can help to encourage the recovery to resume.


Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 5:21 PM

Edit
TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2105.25
2098.25
...would target 2110.75
2104.00
Bias-down: under 2094.75
2088.00
...would target 2089.00
2082.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.