Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 05-27-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's two no-bias environments reflect the session's limited range, but not its relevance. Opening slightly higher at 2091.75, but still under Wednesday's highs, the morning trended back down to probe under Wednesday's lows to 2084.25. The afternoon gradually, choppily trended back up into positive territory, still under the morning's highs. Traction may have been gained, barely, by exiting the bias environment 2-3 ticks above the noon hour's highs and trending up by 2-3 ticks to fresh afternoon highs through the 3:10-3:20 window. Overnight action's new info... Immediately extending higher touched 2092.50. Trending back down greeted Europe's opens at 2088.00 session lows. The open's 2092.50 high was soon recovered, and is being retested now. If, then... If the rally gained traction Thursday, it wasn't decisive, and it hasn't yet been rewarded. That could be the most bullish feature of all, if that is actually patience or restrained optimism. Narrow overnight ranges often resolve aggressively at the intraday open, which would likely be up. The only "unfinished business" is above at 2094.75, and an eventual third higher close to fulfill Tuesday's confirmed breakout, all within the context of resuming a steep recovery leg. This being Friday -- ahead of a three-day weekend, no less -- "Friday Factors" can interfere and invert those influences, or leverage them. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2094.75 would be likely to trigger the 2092.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2087.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Trending up since the open. The pre-open dip to 2089.00 was essentially a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} projection from the overnight high's retest of 2092.50. That natural support, along with there being no active attraction below, at least made the level vulnerable to fading back up. Opening action soon attacked the overnight highs, and eventually pierced and probed its way higher. Attacking "unfinished business above" at 2094.75 to within 3 ticks reacted down instantly to 2091.00, and then bounced right back up.

This morning's 2093.75 bias-up signal invoked the grace period at 10:15, and still overlapping it at 10:30 triggered noN-bias. Not a bias-up targeting 2098.50. Not a no-bias targeting an offsetting test of the bias-down signal below. Price can trend up or down, or range sideways.

Probably, price will range sideways, or flat-to-higher. Volume is shrinking ahead of the three-day weekend, and paralysis is growing ahead of Yellen's afternoon appearance. Greeting the latter from up here would remain vulnerable to at least a knee-jerk reaction up.

It's premature to forecast whether a knee-jerk reaction up would extend or reverse down sharply. But greeting the event from back under the 2089.75 open would likely react down.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2097.00 2094.75 ...would target  2102.00  2099.75 Bias-down: under  2092.50  2090.25 ...would target 2087.75  2085.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGANL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Yellen about to appear. This morning's action adhered to the expected template. The immediately actionable parameter and subsequent signals have led to fresh highs. Consequently, the template's elements are moot, and so is the template.

There only being an attraction above at 2094.75 had prohibited sell signals. Testing it up to 2095.50 has neutralized its attraction. The bias environment has lapsed, and its likelihood for narrow ranging is no longer influential. A surge to fresh highs immediately exploited the morning's noN-bias environment lapsing. This injects a new degree of optimism ahead of Yellen.

Assuming current levels are maintained, Yellen is being greeted from a position of strength. This suggests some probe of higher highs, at some point -- either a durable uptrend into the close, a momentary knee-jerk reaction up that resolves down, or a knee-jerk reaction down that resolves up. Not likely is a knee-jerk reaction down that simply extends lower. At least, not likely without further optimism expressed ahead of the event, like already testing the 2099.00 area.

Yellen's comment had triggered a plunge to 2089.75 whose oversold RSIs required a retest. Its retest launched a two-hour rally up to fresh highs. Post-close action barely nicked the lower-end of its potential to 2098.00-2099.00. All "unfinished business above" is neutralized, but trend extremes rarely occur into or out of holiday weekends. We discussed more of the bigger picture during an expanded post-market Wrap (as there is NO review this weekend). Please enjoy a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.