Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 05-29-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday afternoon''s rally recovered to close back above 2118.00, which isolated its probe to intraday. That intraday test of 2112.00 support (down to 2110.50) had marked the deepest dip to be considered as a pullback. Dipping any deeper intraday than to test 2112.00, or closing any lower than 2118.00, would have signaled a reversal back under Tuesday''s lows. Positive territory was avoided entirely, until a post-close surge (i.e. weak-handed) up to 2122.50.

Overnight action''s new info...
Flat-to-lower ranging once again began trending into Europe''s opens. And once again, trending plunged, soon touching 2112.00. The consolidation there didn''t extend down. Au contraire, it launched a surge back up to 2122.00. Its reaction down is touching 2118.00 as support.

If, then...
Already recovering above 2118.00 at yesterday''s open would have been expected to surge through the morning. Recovering through the close need not rally any more powerfully, but delaying it much past the open would again suggest another dip underway back down to 2112.00. This pattern can absorb that selling pressure only during an irrelevant timing window. And having done that overnight already, repeating it intraday would start making new lows likely.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2121.25 would start making the 2122.50 bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15 -- more so, if 2124.00 were recovered at 9:45. Exitig the open under 2113.00 would be likely to trigger the 2115.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Failing to trigger the open''s recovery opportunity

Opening at or above 2118.00 was half the battle to isolating yet another probe under it. The other half of the battle was then to extend higher. The alternative would be very vulnerable to sliding sharply through the morning.

Indeed. The test of 2118.00 resistance reversed down and down and down. The 2110.00 bias-down target broke easily on the way to 2102.25.

Oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs would doom to failure any bounce from here. But it doesn''t prevent a bounce. So long as a bounce didn''t recover 2108.50, a retest of Tuesday''s 2096.00 lows is now likely.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2117.75
2115.75
...would target 2123.25
2121.25
Bias-down: under 2106.50
2104.50
...would target 2101.75
2099.75
Signal NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday and ranging sideways kept alive the corrective bounce. Its potential to 1.1095 remains intact so long as 1.0910 holds any test as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug which trades at a 50-cent premium to Jun]... Friday''s blip-up in reaction to GDP was reversed immediately back into this week''s narrow range, all but confirming that the prior three sessions were not accumulative, and that lower objectives remain outstanding.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Blipping up in reaction to Friday''s GDP didn''t extend higher. as lower objective remain outstanding in the 16.15-16.35 area.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a 1-18 discount from Jun]... Friday''s gap up attacked Thursday''s gap up, a little more successfully by extending through its 155-14 opening high to 155-27. But the probe quickly settled into narrow ranging around 155-14. The next higher objective in the context of only a temporary corrective rally can now be calculated as 156-16/156-24. Otherwise, back under 154-20 first would signal the bounce had ended already.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday''s late bounce had not ended the trend, but it did jeopardize its near-term momentum, making it vulnerable to a bounce. Despite retracing overnight firming before Friday''s open, a post-open $2 surge tested the original 59.75 sell signal, and then extended higher to attack 60.80. Just closing above 60.30 is now vulnerable to a bigger detour on the way down to 55.00 -- which would be back in-play by closing under 58.15.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The next lower objective under 2.86 at 2.64 was tested Friday, and still being overlapped through the afternoon. The lower close also confirmed Thursday''s break from a mult-session range, so at least a third lower close is required eventually. And that would necessitate closing under the 2.64 objective, putting into play something lower. That something lower could be very much lower if a bottom isn''t forming here. So a bottom depends upon limiting a fresh low close to only a single session, and then immediately recovering above 2.67.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2115.00
2113.00
...would target 2119.75
2118.00
Bias-down: under 2106.00
2104.25
...would target 2100.50
2098.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.