Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-03-2015

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2113.75
2112.00
...would target 2119.75
2118.00
Bias-down: under 2106.00
2104.25
...would target 2100.50
2098.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday morning''s recovery from fresh lows attacking 2096.00 was reversed well into positive territory. But dropping 10 points from 2116.00 had retraced the noon hour''s 6-point surge back through its inflection, and back into negative territory. The trend, itself, had not reversed down, but the attempt to squeeze the morning''s shorts seemed a failure. Was it undone by only having attacked last week''s 2096.00 low, rallying impatiently before a more thorough testing could have formed a more durable bottom?

Overnight action''s new info...
Yesterday;s 10-point drop into the close, and into negative territory, hasn''t extended any deeper. Narrow ranging has gotten volatile, but hasn''t become trending. Surging to 2112.00 into Europe''s opens has ranged widely, down to 2107.50 and back up again.

If, then...
Retracing yesterday''s 6-point noon hour surge was not insignificant. That surge had attracted new sponsorship, extending up another 2 points before peaking. Its reaction down did stop short of retracing back to the 2104.25 last relative low that had preceded the surge. So, duplicating yesterday afternoon''s rally would be credible for extending it much higher this time. The most credible rally attempt would gap up. But attempts to rally from under 2104.25 would more likely be only temporary corrective bounces on the way back down through yesterday''s lows.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2114.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2112.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2108.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2102.25 would be likely to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal.

Pre-open tumble and post-open plunge all recovered.

The pre-open rally to 2119.75 had retraced to the 2112.00 bias-up signal. Bouncing into the open tested the 2114.75 preliminary level, whose recovery through 9:45 would have made the bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15.

By the same token, holding the test of 2114.75 would make bias-up unlikely to trigger.

Headlines about Ukraine rebels made 2114.75''s test react down. Hard. The first 5 minutes plunged 8 points to 2107.25. Suffering the consequences so quickly made 2114.75''s test irrelevant. Bias-up still could trigger.

Bias-up did trigger, already testing the 2118.00 bias-up target. It wasn''t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, but reaching it so late didn''t prevent its momentum from extending higher to 2120.75.

Absorbing yesterday morning''s sell-off should have produced this rally yesterday afternoon. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon''s 2116.00 high should have resumed it with a vengeance.

Exiting the bias environment above 2121.25 is the next possible confirmation that a rally targeting new highs is underway. Back under 2112.00 would have have little excuse for not extending down aggressively.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2119.75
2118.00
...would target 2126.50
2124.75
Bias-down: under 2110.00
2108.25
...would target 2104.00
2102.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday afternoon''s dip had held its 1.1095 pullback limit, which Wednesday''s exploited with a second consecutive higher close that confirmed Tuesday''s breakout. Now at least an eventual third higher close is required.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday had not yet broken lower to continue reversing Monday morning''s failed surge, but Wednesday''s gap down and follow-through to 1180.00 compensated for the delay. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm a deeper downleg underway targeting the 1150''s. Closing above 1189.00 would undermine the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday''s open was already gapping down and probing fresh relative lows ahead of the afternoon''s Beige Book release. Lower lows stopped short of probing the 16.15-16.30. target area.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
New lows Wednesday morning fulfilled the longstanding 149-08 target to within 1 tick before firming into and out of the afternoon''s Beige Book release. Closing above 150-16 would indicate the drop was ending, but not necessarily ready to reverse the trend back up.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
After having probed above 60.80, testing 60.30 was likely to hold through Wednesday''s close. It didn''t. Closing under it suggests that much more substantial selling pressure is forming. But gapping up and/or spiking back through 60.80 Thursday would reject Wednesday''s deeper dip, while targeting 63.00. Closing under 58.75 would invalidate the recovery potential.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday''s gap down from having closed Tuesday above a multi-session range has left unfinished business above. And the intraday dip held a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back into the range. Greeting Thursday''s EIA report already in an uptrend would have been a better position of strength. But immediate strength would be credible for extending higher.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2120.50
2118.75
...would target 2126.00
2124.25
Bias-down: under 2109.75
2108.00
...would target 2104.00
2102.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.