Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-05-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Excessive optimism ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report had extended overnight to test 2437.00. But it was a "new Globex trend extreme." Reacting poorly to the news held multiple tests of the overnight low, which remained in the orbit of the overnight high. Rallying into the afternoon probed the overnight high ultimately attacked 2440.00 into the weekend. A new trend extreme close and confirmed breakout each make at least one more new high close a requirement. Overnight action's new info... Friday's 2437.50 close opened lower Sunday night, and soon resolved down. The dip soon fell to 2433.00, testing this morning's bias-down signal by 2 ticks, before beginning to firm. The reversal ended abruptly when it touched Friday's 2437.50 close, reversing down to 2434.50 which was just touched minutes ago. If, then... This weekend's Saturday Review discussed the two major influences, which are contradicting each other. We discussed reasons why today's session is vulnerable to launching  a corrective downleg, such as measurements and pattern elements. The contradictory influence also makes today vulnerable to reversing down -- that is, the rally requires at least one more eventual higher close. That entrenchment often -- not usually, but often -- inserts a counter-trend move. Probing higher intraday would not ensure lasting through the close, nor would dipping this morning prevent recovering intraday. But these two influences are each strong enough to give early trending a benefit of the doubt for extending. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2435.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2433.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2430.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Monday its regularly length week it is really the first Monday of the month having ended May last week on Wednesday the month ended on a strong note we covered a lot of this all this really in the Saturday review so I won't be covering it again other than its conclusions and remember there are a couple reasons couple there are reasons on other side of the equation why we can look for at some Future Point be relatively confident in their being at least one more higher clothes in this rally could be today doesn't mean if we rally this morning that today will be the day and it doesn't mean it today does close hire that there won't be higher closes but the confirm break Avenue Trenton close on a Friday those do create the requirement for a new trend advantage of that and use it as an opportunity to I also had some unfinished business below at 12810 when 2815 Gap outstanding doesn't seem interested in testing it though and it was a gap it was created in the process of fulfilling are filling another Gap so really difficult time that and then the Looney really been under pressure here as this pull back objective not a big of jective has not been met me not a major pulled back here just a little prioritize so suspicious of any rally that develops in the interim and by the way around we made to be developing in the interim and this is the Looney where we have somewhat of an inverted Head and Shoulders you see the upward slope that really makes it a pivotal correction still has a similar measurement at least in my work to get us out to 7450 maybe even new highs 7515 which would be interesting because that would leave outstanding this correction and still be the product of a shallow to shallow pull back so unless that's actually triggered by closing today about 7425 still looking for the pullback two to be in control to dominate influence at cetera and the euro 1265 6055 actually would put put not in the back burner so much as just put away the potential for this pattern it was done it was done by find that it is imperative crude oil interesting it has on a couple of cell signals here lower and lower lows they're not closing lower like Friday's close was that or overlapping the but it does require that he Tuesday and Wednesday Wednesday and.

Unchanged, after overnight and opening dips. Last night's dip to test the 2433.50 bias-down signal had reacted up to a fresh post-open high at 2437.50. The open was greeted a little weaker, and a little more weakness touched 2433.50. It held. More than holding, "no-bias" triggered at 10:15, after bouncing already up to 2439.00. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2440.00 bias-up signal is in-play. It should define the morning range's upper-end if tested during the no-bias environment. Recovering it through 10:30 would invalidate no-bias and be free to trend higher. I would caution against fading a premature break higher, because such things can get carried away at the highs. I might even consider being exposed to the potential for whipsaw by buying it. Otherwise, trending higher today would be more reliably durable if begun after the bias environment had begun to lapse. Having said that, still not extending higher by noon would be vulnerable to launching a multi-session corrective drop.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2439.00 2438.25 ...would target  2444.25  2443.50 Bias-down: under  2432.75  2432.00 ...would target 2427.25  2426.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Consolidating at unchanged. The post-open bounce stopped 4 ticks short of fulfilling its offsetting test of the 2440.00 bias-up signal. That was before even triggering no-bias. And it was 2 points above Friday's close... briefly. The balance of the bias environment drifted back down to 2434.75. Surging into the noon hour momentarily pierced unchanged above 2437.50. But that is a very suspicious window to express sentiment, and it has not extended. In more than an hour since then. The noon hour's exit pierced above 2437.50 again. Despite not rejecting unchanged, another relevant window has avoided probing higher. The vulnerability to launching into a downleg is increasing significantly. This morning's unfinished business above at 2440.00 may be inhibiting that. A fresh high that reverses back down would be bearish.

Entering Monday's noon hour so optimistically is precisely what had suggested it wouldn't extend higher. Or, that extending higher would be doomed to failure. I would have preferred the latter. The former only  narrowed its range since then from 3-1/2 points to 1-1/2 points. Avoiding a probe of fresh highs had made the pattern increasingly vulnerable to launching a multi-session correction. Not yet declining by the final hour had made a fresh high obligatory. Not required, but suddenly likely, and still likely to fail. That didn't happen either. Dipping into the close remained within the range. And like entering the noon hour optimistically, the late timing suggests its price action wasn't sponsored by strong hands. Extending down Tuesday would be credible only if begun immediately, and without holding any test of support. Otherwise, "unfinished business above" at the morning's 2440.00 bias objective remains outstanding, as does a higher close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2439.00 2438.25 ...would target  2444.00  2443.50 Bias-down: under  2432.50  2432.00 ...would target 2427.25  2426.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNALr FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.