THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3199.25 3186.75 ...would target 3211.25 3198.75 Bias-down: under 3178.25 3165.75 ...would target 3167.75 3155.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday was defined by multiple failed bounces. Its open was greeted by an overnight rally above Tuesday's high up to 3227.00, and its reversal back into negative territory at 3193.00. Failed bounce #1. Failed bounce #2 was a pre-open bounce up to 3219.00 that reversed down again to 3180.00. Later firming into the FOMC events surged up to 3221.00 for failed bounce #3, which was reversed down to 3180.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) [ALL PRICES HEREIN ARE SEP] The last bounce's reversal extended uninterrupted through the Globex open. A bounce off of 3151.50 had failed by midnight, and its fresh lows has extended down sharply to attack 3109.00. Now another bounce up to 3134.50 has failed, reacting down to attack 3105.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) [ALL PRICES HEREIN ARE SEP] Yesterday's intraday range confirmed that greeting FOMC events from within a multi-session range would likely close within the range. But that wasn't put to much of a test without even attempting to trend beyond the range. A break was still likely, and still likely to be false if retraced back to some relevant level through a relevant timing window. That's less demanding on an intraday break, which could reject a breakout by not confirming the next day. Today's indication is not a breakout, but a gap. A substantial break that makes it difficult to retrace a relevant level through the first 30-60 minutes. Friday's 57-point gap is being probed, and it contains no price action to recover from probing. Depending on how deeply they're probed, recovering gap-to-gap proxies at 3122.25 and 3136.25 [basis SEP] could at least launch a morning bounce. But that bounce must prevent an Island forming from the past 4-day range. And bounces have been failing a lot this week, with no attraction in-play from unfinished business above. Breaking free from the range's magnetic attraction makes the only active influences the unfinished business below. And that downleg could become very aggressive. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3150.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3155.75 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

Relentless Downtrending confirmed, and failed bounces persist. Overnight lows testing 3087.00 had reacted up pre-open to 3106.50. Already dipping into the 3101.00 open formed a downtrend through the opening 15 minutes of volatility that momentarily pierced a fresh low at 3086.00. Downtrending through the open does not reject the Relentless Overnight Trend, forming a bearish setup that expects to probe lower this morning. Exiting the open under overnight lows would have been likely to trend down through the morning. Trending up through the open would have been likely to trend up this morning. Either would have been more decisive than just trending down through the open. But that did form a position of weakness to indicate any bouncing would be only counter-trend. And fail. In fact, bouncing to 3107.50 through the first half-hour has reversed down to fresh lows testing and retesting 3070.00 while RSIs diverge positively. I'm still expecting 3066.00 to at least be attacked, too, before bottoming would be credible. Otherwise, its next lower objective is 3055.00, and then potentially 3020.00. Entering the noon hour back above the first half-hour's range would suggest bottoming has begun. Not necessarily any near-term recovery, but no durable downleg. The gap up to last Friday's open above all prior highs wants to be filled from below -- this setup has no particular timing that can prevent further downside first, but it does offer context.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3090.00 3077.00 ...would target 3106.50 3093.50 Bias-down: under 3068.00 3055.00 ...would target 3051.00 3038.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Today's lowest target nearly met. Failing to counter the bearish Relentless Overnight Trending made the morning likely to extend down. Extending even lower through the noon hour attacked the potential for 3020.00 to within 3 points. Its actual test isn't required. Neither is a retest of the 3023.25 low since its oversold RSIs developed only during the noon hour. Now this afternoon's 3055.00 bias-down signal has triggered. Probing under its 3038.00 bias-down target was recovered in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. But the next hour is still a bias-down environment, its upside constrained by its bias-down signal if tested. A buy signal above 3039.75 was just tested up to 3044.50. Its reaction is touching a sell signal at 3032.00 whose break would target a retest of the lows, presumably down to 3020.00. Otherwise, back above 3044.50 would delay any further downside until the final hour. Meanwhile, this is Thursday. Fridays often duplicate big Thursday trending. Not necessarily, but Fridays rarely reject them. Hovering around the noon hour low or bouncing no higher than 3071.00 would form a Gap-and-go that allow a bounce tomorrow that resolves down next week. Only closing above 3088.00 would even begin to suggest another rally leg is underway. Unfinished business at Friday's 3159.00 gap up above all prior highs, and the Island formed since then, can be delayed indefinitely.

Thursday's open was greeted by Relentless Overnight Trending from 3176.50 to as low as 3087.00. The opening 15 minutes trended down enough to invalidate counter-trend sponsorship, while signaling lower lows through the morning. The drop actually extended to 2985.25 where the last half-hour ranged sideways to finish at 2992.50. Lower and lower lows through the bias window exit and final hour entry formed PM Traction. PM Traction expects trending through the morning, regardless of gapping open up or down. Meanwhile, strongly trending Thursdays tend to be duplicated on Friday, not by measurement so much as characterization. Friday Factors may influence either setup. Those two bearish influences make a session-long rally unlikely. Trying to form it from gapping up above Thursday afternoon's 3044.50 high could instead fail to trigger and become as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. Is Thursday's collapse ending the bear market rally? Probably* not, since last Friday's 3159.00 gap up above all prior highs, and the Island it began forming, are two structures that want want to be retested from below. And Thursday's collapse -- although substantial, and even more so if duplicated Friday -- is still above 3-week consolidation that launched the last upleg. Thursday's low was only the last upleg's 50{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement, where a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement to the 2933.00 is a more critical pullback limit. *So, probably not, as in possibly, but not all protection against extending down sharply into and out of the weekend. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3026.75 3013.75 ...would target 3048.25 3035.25 Bias-down: under 2992.50 2979.50 ...would target 2970.75 2957.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.