Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday morning was flat-to-lower, probing just under the overnight range, but still contained within Tuesday afternoon's range. The afternoon's FOMC policy statement was greeted at the range's lower-end, blipping down 6 points to 2915.25 and then snapping back up 20 points to 2935.25. Its pullback tested and retested 2924.00, and gradually recovered for a late attack on 2937.00. The close dipped back under prior highs to 2931.00-2933.50. Overnight action's new info... Testing 2936.50 was likely also to visit 2940.00, but it wasn't. Not before the close. It was soon fulfilled by immediate rallying at the Globex open. The rally extended to 2945.50 by midnight. ranging narrowly at the bias-up target. Already extending higher into Europe's opens, the rally to fresh highs has touched 2960.00. The prior intraday high was 6 ticks higher, and the Globex trend extreme is 5 points higher. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) When identifying the next higher objective at 2932.00, we also noted that a confirmed close above it would target new highs approaching 3000.00. Assuming the overnight gains aren't retraced entirely today, we'll need to see how resistance is tested at May's 2961.50 prior intraday high, and the 2964.75 Globex trend extreme -- closing back under them, like yesterday's test of Tuesday's high, would not signal a reversal, but would require the rally to extend higher forcefully to remain intact. Meanwhile, overnight relentless trending does face a test at the open to attract intraday sponsorship, which isn't assured. A corrective dip's likeliest objective is the 2945.00 area, which would still be able to resolve in another upleg, but closing any deeper would not. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2952.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2945.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Relentless overnight trending scares off intraday reinforcements. The overnight rally eventually extended to within 1 tick of May's 2964.75 "Globex trend extreme" that has yet to be retested intraday. The open initially dipped to 2956.00 and consolidated through the first 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45. Overlap persisted through the first half-hour and bias timing window at 10:15. This setup forms a position of strength that is likely to attract price back to it, if not also through it. At least, it did attract price back up when its 2952.00 corrective target was met to within 1 tick. Now a lower low attacking 2950.00 is trying to recover, too. But a buy signal at 2954.75 just failed to trigger. Extending under 2949.25 would target the 2945.00 area, potentially to 2942.00. But back above 2952.75 would start to signal this morning's pullback was done.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2748.75 2753.75 ...would target 2755.25 2760.25 Bias-down: under 2737.50 2742.50 ...would target 2729.00 2734.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A bridge too far. Pulling back to the 2957.00 area this morning had potential for launching a recovery. Any lower would start to suggest something more substantial was underway. And more substantial would mean the 2945.00 area. Which was attacked to within 3 ticks when the morning's bias environment began lapsing. Its 5-point reaction up was on the verge of recovery. Then rhetoric in the Iran saber-rattling heated up, triggering a collapse to 2936.00. Just as quickly, the comments that triggered the collapse were walked back. And the collapse was retraced by at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. So was the bounce, and now 2951.00 is being retested. The noon hour's low doesn't require a retest. The open's 2960.50 gap up does. And perhaps the high's retest can develop into a more substantial rally attacking 3000.00. The recovery doesn't require resuming, and there are downside risks to not closing higher. Back under 2943.00 would again start to signal something more substantial underway below.

Wednesday night's relentless rally up to 2964.50 failed to attract reinforcements at Thursday's open. That often happens, and its likely retracement targeted 2952.00 if not also the 2945.00 area. The latter was attacked to within 3 ticks and already trying to recover when an Iran headline triggered a plunge into the noon hour testing 2936.00. At least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the headline reaction was retraced, as usual, and then the reaction's 2951.00 origin was recovered going into the afternoon bias environment. Extending the recovery to 2955.00 at the final hour's entry was above the bias environment high, and the bias environment was exited above the noon hour high. Buyers gained traction for their efforts, becoming likely to extend higher into and/or out of the close. A pullback recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2963.25, neutralizing Thursday's 2960.50 opening gap and reacting down to 2958.00. Thursday's gap up invalidated Wednesday's potentially bearish WedEX, so trending into and out of the weekend is not assured. May's 2964.75 "new Globex trend extreme" still has yet to be tested intraday. And a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm an attack on 3000.00 is in-play. Interim resistance is at 2973.00 and 2979.75. Maintaining the rally offers a possibility of closing Friday at a new trend extreme, which requires at least an eventual trend high close. Regardless, trend extremes rarely coincide precisely with expirations, even if expiration is counter-trend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2959.25 2964.00 ...would target 2966.50 2971.25 Bias-down: under 2949.50 2954.25 ...would target 2943.50 2948.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.