Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday afternoon's pullback was neither rejected nor extended overnight, not even through Europe's headlines. Not until tariff headlines triggered a collapse from the 3107.00-3128.00 range down to 3081.00. The intraday propensity to duplicate overnight headline reactions genuinely triggered a deeper collapse to 3020.00 at Wednesday morning's low. The balance of the session ranged choppily back up to 3055.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday's 3020.00 low was attacked before midnight, and consolidated until Europe's opens. Sliding sharply down to 3005.00 was soon reversed up as sharply as its drop. And more so, probing the earlier consolidation to now attack earlier Globex highs at 3052.25-3056.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday afternoon's 3006.00 bias-down target wasn't triggered, but it remained relevant as the next lower attraction. And now it has been tested overnight, further proving its relevance by reacting up sharply. Meanwhile, regardless of their timing, fresh lows were likely and also vulnerable to ending the drop from Tuesday afternoon. Bullish Gap-and-go and Isolation setups are forming, and triggering either through the open would imply a new upleg is underway. The next challenge above would be resistance at 3093.00-3112.00 from the 8-day range that broke yesterday. Fluctuating sideways today is also possible, but a lower close would confirm yesterday's bearish breakout. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3031.00 would be likely to trigger the 3036.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3043.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Next challenge: turning positive. More positive. Last night's recovery from its 3005.00 low had touched the 3052.25 earlier Globex high. Recovering it through the open would have formed a bullish setup. Just holding above yesterday's 3040.00 cash session close would have formed another bullish setup. But the 3034.00 open slid back down to 3011.50.

That was still potentially bullish. Yesterday's low had required being probed. If the rally couldn't exploit the low's overnight test by turning positive, then an intraday test still could. And the intraday probe under yesterday's low has turned positive.

Mostly. Bouncing post-open up to 3048.75 is above yesterday's cash session close. Yesterday's futures close is another tick higher. Its recovery should be easy if higher objectives are in-play. Stopping within 1 tick of the futures close is pessimistically short, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Meanwhile, post-open tests of the 3025.25 and 3036.00 bias-down parameters were recovered in time to trigger no-bias. Offsetting tests of BOTH 3057.50 and 3070.75 bias-up targets are in-play. Already having exceeded the pre-10:15 high, the bias-up signal can only be met, or become unfinished business. But exiting this morning's bias environment back under the bias-down target can invalidate the bias-up target's objective.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3056.25 3045.00 ...would target 3068.25 3057.00 Bias-down: under 3034.75 3023.75 ...would target 3023.50 3012.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And still stuck in negative territory. Unfinished business remained outstanding from the morning bias-up parameters at 3057.50 and 3070.75. Neither necessarily extends to also recover the recent 8-day range's 3093.00-3112.00 equilibrium, let alone attacks it. Meanwhile, recovering has more pressing challenges. Although fluctuating around and probing yesterday's 3040.00 cash session close, the 3049.00 futures close is quickly rejecting the shallow probes above it. And now this afternoon's 3045.00 bias-up signal has avoided triggering either way, still being overlapped at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. This afternoon is not no-bias which would require the bias-up signal to hold as resistance. And this isn't bias-up which would put into play the bias-up target. It is noN-bias, with no bias objective. noN-bias environments often do behave like no-bias environments and avoid trending. But breaking higher at any time would still be credible, especially considering this morning's unfinished business above. Back under 3027.25 would start to suggest otherwise.

The requirement to probe under Wednesday's 3020.00 low was fulfilled by an overnight drop to 3005.00. Its immediate recovery up to 3052.00 proved its relevance, but not before a post-open dip to 3111.00. And not before the noon hour and bias environment ranged narrowly between Wednesday's 3040.00-3049.00 closes. And not before entering the final hour. Finally, the morning bias environment's 3057.50 and 3070.75 bias objectives were met by the final hour's 40-point rally up to 3079.50. The late breakout is too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. Already both the bias environment exit and final hour entry had failed to probe a prior high. Waiting so late before breaking out is often retraced, perhaps entirely if not just to lower prior highs at 3048.50. Bank stocks dipping post-close might be a catalyst for that pullback By the same token, ignoring bank stocks' post-close dip would be bullish. And without the rally gaining PM Traction, trending higher Friday morning requires gapping up. Even then, gapping up doesn't ensure trending higher Friday morning. The late 40-point rally stopped 13 points of even touching the 3093.00-3112.00 resistance that any durable upleg must still recover. That's equilibrium for the recent 8-day range, and breaking it would target 3188.00-3197.50. Even without the late rally, at least Wednesday's breakout from that range wasn't confirmed. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3092.25 3081.00 ...would target 3111.25 3100.00 Bias-down: under 3072.50 3061.50 ...would target 3059.50 3048.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.