Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 07-13-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s post-close reversal had trended up overnight to gap up Friday at Wednesday''s 2068.00 opening high. Reacting down this time held 2060.00 and resumed trending through the day, albeit shallowly. The rally gained traction from a late-afternoon attack on 2075.00, reacting down to test the open''s 2068.00 high.

Overnight action''s new info...
Weekend developments surrounding Greece were quite different from Thursday''s post-close catalyst. Sunday night''s gap down touched 2052.00, retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the rally from Wednesday''s low to Thursday''s high. I noted in the chaRTroom that could have been much worse. Recovering back to unchanged was corrected before surging past Friday''s highs to 2079.00 through Europe''s opens. That has extended to attack 2088.00, as much into positive territory as Sunday night''s gap down was negative.

If, then...
Friday''s rally had gained traction, so trending up this morning all but requires extending a gap up through the open. And the indicated gap up would break above the two-week trading range highs where previous gaps up went to die. A reaction down could test the range''s "lower prior highs" down to the 2073.00 area before suggesting another recovery effort has failed.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2081.50 would suggest the 2078.50 bias-up target will remain recovered through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2068.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2073.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Overnight recovery finds post-open sponsorship.

The 2084.75 open extended higher without delay. Ranging around the 2087.50 overnight high formed a Symmetrical Triangle that has broken higher to 2091.25.

This gets into the target area around 2092.00 that I defined during Saturday Review. A reaction down becomes likely when combined with the Triangle -- a pattern that tends often to break falsely initially before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.

Patience is NOT a virtue at this stage. Refueling sellers by trapping shorts shouldn''t be necessary. This should be the stage where trapped shorts are squeezed to help fuel the rally. But reacting down could target the 2077.00 area just as a corrective dip that still recovers.

Extending deeper down to 2073.00 still could launch another upleg, but much less reliably. The most bullish scenario is to simply extend higher this morning to exit the bias environment above the 2092.00 area.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2099.50
2092.50
...would target 2105.00
2098.00
Bias-down: under 2091.00
2084.00
...would target 2084.75
2077.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night''s reaction to the Greece deal tried holding 1.1120 support but eventually slid through it Monday, testing 1.1000 support, and still targeting 1.0935.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week''s bounces had held the 1163.00 buy signal. Monday''s slide tested 1150.00 to within $3 of prior lows before bouncing back to 1158.50 resistance. Closing back above 1158.50 does suggest the dips are weak-handed, making any probe above 1163.00 that much likelier to extend higher intraday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday''s weak-handed attempt to extend above 15.35-15.45 resistance was retraced Monday back toward 15.25, but still recovered back up to 15.45. That action may have neutralized Friday''s premature rally effort, so that early strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Sunday night was reversed to fresh lows before Monday''s open as a Greece deal was reached. Firming intraday tried to avoid another lower close, which would allow a lower buy signal than 150-24.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness managed to hold within the recent range to avoid extending the decline. But recovering 54.30 is still needed to prevent the narrow range from becoming a continuation pattern.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to test 2.83 resistance and probing it temporarily to 2.88 was no more bullish than Friday''s rally that closed at 2.77 resistance. Closing above either is needed to signal trending, especially if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close the following day.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2103.50
2096.50
...would target 2107.75
2101.75
Bias-down: under 2096.00
2089.00
...would target 2089.50
2082.50
Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.