Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 07-21-2015

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2132.25
2125.50
...would target 2138.00
2131.25
Bias-down: under 2124.25
2117.50
...would target 2119.25
2112.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday''s modest gap up to the morning''s 2121.75 bias-up signal had reacted down under Friday''s highs to 2116.50, putting into play a test of the bias-down signal. But that singular bearish influence was overwhelmed by the bullish WedEX and several other bullish factors. The bias-up signal was recovered on the way to afternoon highs testing the 2126.00 area. A failed attempt to gain traction was reversed down to attack 2119.00. Unfinished business was left outstanding at the afternoon''s 2128.25 bias-up target.

Overnight action''s new info...
Flat-to-higher ranging tested 2125.00 into Europe''s opens. Reacting back down to the 2120.50 area is trying to firm again.

If, then...
Having failed to gain traction yesterday afternoon, extending the rally this morning all but requires gapping up through yesterday''s highs. The alternative would at least back-and-fill, probably down to 2103.00. Unlike a rally''s gap up origin, a path down has no specific characteristic, such as its slope.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2127.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2125.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2119.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Probing lower.

Yesterday afternoon''s buyers tried gaining traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour''s high. But new sponsorship wasn''t attracted, so they gained no traction for the effort. Attracting new sponsorship overnight would have gapped up today. No gap up = downside risk.

A lot of that risk materialized during the pre-open 7-1/2 point drop that touched this morning''s 2117.50 bias-down signal. Having expended so much selling pressure and touching support, the open bounced 4 points to touch yesterday''s 2121.75 close.

Reacting down since then has pierced the 2117.50 pre-open low. It''s too late to trigger bias-down, and too late to invalidate the no-bias. The 2117.50 bias-down signal should define the range''s lower-end, but that can be fulfilled by recovering up to it after probing it deeply.

In fact, room for noise below it down to 2115.50 is being attacked now to within 1 tick. It could be probed another 10 points. Meanwhile, unfinished business above is left outstanding, but buyers need to be attracted, presumably from lower levels.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2126.00
2119.00
...would target 2130.75
2124.00
Bias-down: under 2117.75
2111.00
...would target 2112.50
2105.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday''s ongoing test of the decline''s 1.0855 target reacted up Tuesday to probe the 1.0920 bounce limit up to 1.0970. That''s a wide margin, and creates a lot of room to absorb selling pressure if Wednesday were to fill the gap back down to 1.0855 and lower. There is otherwise no active buy signal.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight and pre-open ranging around 1100.00 narrowed intraday Tuesday, but persisted nonetheless. Probing under it would be likely to retest Sunday night''s low down to 1076.50. Back above 1122.20 first would be bullish.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy but flat ranging around 14.80 Tuesday absorbed Sunday/Monday''s shock to the system from its sympathy to Gold''s flash crash. There is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down slightly Tuesday and probing under 151-14 was reversed into positive before territory by noon, keeping alive the upward momentum and its potential to 154-00.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday''s fresh low under 50.00 was initially retraced overnight into Tuesday''s open. The session ranged narrowly sideways, still likely to break lower targeting 48.00.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday''s recovery back above the 2.83 pullback limit was extended overnight to probe above Monday afternoon''s recovery high. Gapping up to immediately test 2.88 was the beginning of an entire session consolidating narrowly at 2.88. But since closing Tuesday above 2.83, Wednesday should confirm.