Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 08-08-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Stop me if you've heard this one. Monday's flat open resolved up through the afternoon, closing at session highs. Actually, you haven't heard that one. Not in a while. Yesterday's intraday action deviated from the pattern of failed gap up. But it still was contained within the two-week range. And volatility wasn't substantial, even after getting past the dry cleaners morning. Overnight action's new info... Ending the day testing 2478.00 was not improved upon, and there was no thought of it. Price immediately dived to attack 2475.00, and later spiked down to 2473.50. The balance of the night has been firming, so far attacking 2477.00.. If, then... Monday's close left the market its best opportunity for a breakout of the recent range. Closing at its upper-end, after a session of mostly restrained optimism. And now the overnight action's pessimism has neutralized any optimism. As much as the contrarian perspective is ready to go, the ongoing pattern of intraday ranging hasn't yet let go. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2478.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2478.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2473.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2472.75 bias-down signal.

Extra dip is recovered. Holding 2475.75 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility -- preferably piercing only 3 ticks lower -- was the optimal setup for rallying this morning. But opening at 2475.00 dipped to 2472.50, touching an inflection point there that would have opened the door to sharply lower levels.

The two paths seem very different. Except that the open's deeper dip did recover back up to 2475.75 as the bias timing window approached.

The 2478.75 bias-up signal didn't trigger. But its test has been put into play by holding a test of the 2472.75 bias-down signal. This morning's most bullish scenario may be to work its way back up to yesterday's high, positioned to rally higher when the bias environment's constraint lapses. Already, the reaction up is attacking 2478.00. Backing-and-filling is still possible while waiting for the bias environment to lapse. Rallying this afternoon could be very productive, targeting at least 2484.00. Otherwise, holding a test of the bias-up signal and reversing back under the opening print could trigger a new downleg.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2488.75 2486.00 ...would target  2494.50  2492.00 Bias-down: under  2482.50  2480.00 ...would target 2477.00  2474.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

New highs printed, with dubious timing that tries reverse down. Holding a test of the 2472.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2478.75 bias-up signal. The most bullish scenario I described for this morning was to attack yesterday's ~2478.00 highs and then break higher this afternoon. The rally was too impatient to wait, and surged to new highs at 2488.50. The move originated during a no-bias environment whose bias-up signal should have defined the window's upper-end. Alternatively, the "no-bias" trending could be retraced back down to 2478.75, if not also to the 2475.50 10:15 print. 2478.75 was retraced as this afternoon's bias environment began. It was probed by 1 point before bouncing. Another dip is threatening to reach 2475.50. Meanwhile, there is no "unfinished business above." Only 2484.00 needed to be met. Closing above it would suggest a bigger rally underway targeting 2515.00 (2504.00-2522.00). Otherwise, closing under the 2472.50-2474.00 open would form a Pivot Reversal that points down sharply. For awhile.

We've been here before. We're back there again, and then some. We've closed sessions with no "unfinished business above" outstanding. Tuesday's 2488.50 high satisfied the prior high's retest up to a minimum 2484.00. Overbought RSIs last printed during the noon hour, so don't require a retest. This instance has the added bearishness of having formed a "Pivot Reversal" which I describe in detail during the Market Wrap recording. Gapping up above 2478.00 Wednesday would go a long way to invalidating the bearish setup. Along way toward it, but ot all the way, which would be done by closing above 2484.00. Extending down instead has plenty of unfinished business below. The most central of which is a gap back down to 2425.00, which shouldn't be filled at this stage unless much lower objectives are in-play. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2480.00 2477.25 ...would target  2485.00  2482.75 Bias-down: under  2472.00 2469.25 ...would target  2465.50 2462.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.