Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's 2933.00 high was almost recovered Sunday night until Europe's opens triggered a collapse back down to Friday's 2899.00 low, and eventually lower to 2893.00 before Monday's open. A choppy open attacked 2909.00 before reversing down again to natural support at the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of last Wed-Thu's gap at 2889.50. Its reaction into the noon hour also reversed down, entering the final hour at 2872.50. Bouncing briefly back up to 2885.00 still closed at or under the 2881.50-2883.50 "lower prior highs" of last week's Mon-Wed range to prevent signaling a bigger bounce. Afternoon sellers gained traction for their efforts. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Initial price action didn't seem as if intraday sellers had just gained traction. Dropping only a little deeper after Monday's close to 2878.50 was reversed up through the open to test this morning's 2887.50 bias-up signal by as much as 2 points. Its resistance finally let go after midnight, sliding sharply to greet Europe's opens as low as 2871.00. An eventual bounce resolved down to fresh lows testing 2867.00, and now another bounce is attacking 2881.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday afternoon's sellers gained traction for their efforts, making this morning likely to trend down. And not rejecting 2881.50-2883.50 as support through Monday's close kept alive attractions to the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracements of last week's Mon-Wed range -- at 2860.00-2862.00 and potentially 2846.00-2848.00 to resume the decline. But a morning extension can be trumped by isolating an overnight probe, which a bounce is currently attempting. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2874.00 would be likely to trigger the 2876.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2880.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Headline triggers massive detour. A pre-open dip came within 3 ticks of the 2866.75 overnight low, within an hour of the open. Greeting the open above yesterday's 2883.50 cash session close was off the table. The decline to fresh lows remained intact. The pattern's only path higher would require a substantial surge, which also meant an external catalyst. Which a China trade headline delivered, and then some. Initially reacting up to 2896.00-2898.00 was soon extended by another surge back to Thursday/Friday afternoon's 2933.00 highs. And that has extended higher to 2944.25. That's a fresh high, above last week's highs. Maintaining fresh highs through the close could put last week's recovery back on-track, its reward being a retest of the highs. Meanwhile, sellers aren't marginalized, and won't be marginalized today. There will always be a path lower. Currently, a sell signal at 2931.00 is being tested, with a likely attraction back down to 2896.00-2898.00 or lower.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2933.75 2934.50 ...would target 2941.25 2942.00 Bias-down: under 2922.25 2923.25 ...would target 2916.25 2917.25 Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The opposite of up isn't down (it's not-up). This morning's surges got to 2944.25 before losing sponsorship again. The reaction got to 2917.50 as the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Flat-to-higher ranging since then has been only noise within the range. The morning's rally isn't required to resume, or to be retraced. The balance of the session could continue drifting sideways.

Resuming the rally would still be credible, albeit an hour from now when this afternoon's no-bias environment is lapsing, as buyers become comfortable that the surge won't be retraced.

Retracing the rally doesn't have much room below until the no-bias environment is lapsing, but that has a lot of room below -- and very little sponsorship to absorb sellers.

Regardless, the catalyst to this morning's surge is artificial and vulnerable to being retraced or at least corrected. Trump criticizing China's crackdown in Hong Kong could elicit a response that triggers a drop. But Trump already commented on the situation, much more neutrally than critically, and buyers might start getting comfortale that no other shoe will drop today.

A funny thing happened on the way to the coliseum... Organic weakness from Monday's close around 2881.50-2883.50 had kept alive downside momentum by default, and it wasn't rejected before Tuesday's open. The pattern's only kryptonite could be a sudden, steep and substantial reversal, and that could only be triggered in reaction to a headline. A China trade headline caught the market in decline, triggering a rush to buy, cover and reverse that ultimately extended up to the first hour's 2944.25 high. Apparently that sucked in all available buying pressure, as the balance of the session fluctuated around last Thursday afternoon's predictive 2925.25-2933.00 range. Tuesday's close within 2925.25-2933.00 is no more predictive than Monday's close within 2881.50-2883.50. Trending is possible in either direction Wednesday morning. As is a temporary pullback to 2896.00-2898.00 regardless of its resolution. Breaking higher first would be credible for extending the recovery, still needing to maintain its breakout through the close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2933.75 2934.50 ...would target 2940.25 2941.00 Bias-down: under 2923.50 2924.50 ...would target 2916.25 2917.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.