Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 08-14-2015

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2092.00
2087.25
...would target 2096.50
2091.75
Bias-down: under 2078.50
2073.75
...would target 2072.25
2067.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Trading overnight 8 points above Wednesday''s high to 2093.00 didn''t qualify as rewarding its intraday recovery for having gained traction. Dipping no lower than 2073.00 during Thursday''s open, and then only ranging sideways through the morning''s bias environment, only delayed the actual reward until Thursday afternoon''s bias environment. That was shallower to only 2089.00, and exiting the bias environment slid immediately to within 1 tick of 2077.00. The afternoon''s 2091.00 bias-up target became "unfinished business above."

Overnight action''s new info...
Firming through the night repeatedly held tests of 2082.00, but extended higher to test 2085.00 after Europe''s opens. That only stretched the rubber band, which snapped back down under Thursday''s last-minute low. The probe has since extended down to 2074.00.

If, then...
A "session-long rally" setup is off the table since today''s open isn''t yet indicated to gap up. So, rallying anyway would be likely to reverse back down before the close. The most bullish scenario may be a rally effort limited until late-afternoon to 2091.00 -- resembling a lot of flat-to-higher choppiness -- and then breaking higher. None of which would be relevant if the open isn''t holding tests of support. I''m not aware of any scheduled high-profile events this weekend that might be anticipated as catalysts for widespread defensive selling.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2077.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2073.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2073.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2089.00 would be likely to trigger the 2087.25 bias-up signal.

Rally out of overnight weakness is limited.

Overnight lows had held multiple touches of this morning''s 2073.75 bias-down signal. Pre-open firming was probing back above 2077. Post-open action rallied up to 2081.50, where a consolidation eventually broke higher to 2084.50.

That was just 3 ticks short of the overnight high, and it was a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back to yesterday afternoon''s highs. Its resistance triggered a dip back down to 2080.50.

This opening action should serve generally as a template for the balance of the morning -- perhaps even into the afternoon''s bias environment. In other words, sellers don''t retake control, but the upside is choppy and reluctant to extend very far before reacting down.

Assuming that scenario plays out, then late-afternoon would be postured to resume the rally in earnest, with no limitations. But dipping back down to 2077.00 this morning would suggest a growing vulnerability to trending back down this afternoon.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2090.75
2086.00
...would target 2095.50
2091.00
Bias-down: under 2082.25
2077.75
...would target 2077.75
2073.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rather than reject 1.1120 either way, Friday only ranged choppily around it. That''s not necessarily bullish, but the path higher remains open so long as 1.1075 holds as support

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday''s ranging more thoroughly tested the 1112.00 pullback limit that was barely attacked Thursday. Closing above 1118.00 would be likely to resume the rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping back into the pullback limit that had been tested already down to 15.30 needs to hold its test of 15.20 support. There shouldn''t be much further delay in probing back above Thursday''s high if the recovery remains in-play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Thursday night stopped just several ticks short of the 158-24 bounce limit whose recovery would suggest a repeat of Wednesday night''s highs testing the 160-22 objective. The overnight high was retested Friday. Any close back under 157-14 would signal the trend reversing down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday''s inside day was in-line with the four-session sequence of consecutive non-confirmations to consecutive breakouts. The inside day does make the next trending attempt vulnerable to being false and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After Thursday''s EIA reaction had extended down to attack 2.77, Friday''s open gapped up to 2.83 and probed it intraday. Closing above 2.88 would confirm the rally had resumed.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2095.50
2091.00
...would target 2102.00
2097.50
Bias-down: under 2085.00
2080.50
...would target 2078.25
2073.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.