Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's open was greeted back at the 2881.50-2883.50 origin of Tuesday morning's surge to 2944.00. A little lower, actually before the open, down to 2879.00. The open's bounce to its 2889.50 limit quickly reversed down, fulfilling the decline's next two targets at 2860.00-2862.00 and 2846.00-2848.00 before the noon hour ended. A very choppy afternoon making only slightly lower lows eventually tested 2837.50-2839.00 through the close. Sellers gained no traction and no "unfinished business" was left outstanding, but a bearish WedEX triggered. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Already corrected? Already retraced... entirely. Initially sliding into the Globex open had quickly tested fresh lows at 2834.00. Reversing up just as quickly extended to 2857.50 before midnight. Its reaction recovered to fresh highs that greeted Europe's opens at 2865.00. Choppy ranging eventually collapsed in reaction to a China trade headline. All of the overnight recovery attempt has been retraced to probe fresh lows under 2818.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Did the correction already play out overnight? Probing and then closing yesterday under both 2860.00-2862.00 and 2846.00-2848.00 in the same session expended a lot of selling pressure. Also, sellers gained no traction for their efforts, and no unfinished business was left outstanding. Each of these factors by itself created vulnerability to a backing-and-filling bounce. Did the overnight bounce suffice for already resuming the decline this morning? Its post-open character would likely be at a steeper slope, and much uglier than Wednesday's relentless slide. Its next target is the lower-end of 2817.00-2821.50 whose upper-end had defined last week's intraday low -- and which was just attacked to within 3 ticks. And then the 2800.00 area, but only temporarily and not at all prettily. Absorbing the overnight drop early enough to bounce intraday would have potential up to 2881.50-2883.50, or 2903.00 and 2914.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2828.00 would be likely to trigger the 2832.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2841.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Fighting hard not to trend. The pre-open Market Tour had noted the overnight collapse from 2864.00-2865.00 down to 2817.75 was headline triggered, and therefore vulnerable to being retraced. But being overnight, any retracement must be largely underway before the open, or else the opening 15 minutes of volatility would no longer be influenced.

Then came another headline -- essentially countering the first -- triggering a surge to 2871.75. Die by the headline, live by the headline.

That was last night's most volatile swing, but not its only swing. Already the market was in desperate need of intraday sponsorship, because the overnight crowd was spent. It seems that more effort has been expended trying not to trend, than in trying to trend.

Opening at the 2952.25 bias-up signal soon fell to 2934.50, then just as quickly recovered. Price action since that first half-hour's swing has only ranged choppily around the 2952.25 bias-up signal. And it didn't trigger, so an offsetting test of the 2932.25 bias-down signal is in-play. Fresh post-open highs above 2958.00 would be "no-bias trending," required to retrace, but meanwhile vulnerable to probing overnight highs. Otherwise, back under 2945.00 should extend to 2932.25, and threaten to exit the bias environment in decline.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2856.00 2856.25 ...would target 2868.00 2868.25 Bias-down: under 2837.00 2837.25 ...would target 2827.75 2828.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Almost touched the bias-up signal. Choppy sideways ranging persists, and the first half-hour's range continues to contain price action. This afternoon is a no-bias environment, after only attacking its 2956.25 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. But that wouldn't require an offsetting test of its bias-down signal during the afternoon. Anyway, an offsetting test of this morning's 2832.25 bias-down signal is already "unfinished  business. Holding a test of this morning's 2852.25 bias-up signal had put it into play, and it was almost attacked to within 2 points. Nothing requires trending again today. But exiting the bias environment in decline would be likely to extend down through the close. Otherwise, holding this range through the close would be more vulnerable to a corrective bounce Friday morning.

Wednesday night's volatility was a shock to the system that undermined intraday trending Thursday. Globex swung from probing Wednesday's low down to 2837.50 back up to 2865.00, collapsing to 2817.75 and then surging to 2871.75. 2837.50 defined Thursday morning's lows, whose reactions up to 2856.00-2858.00 were well under overnight highs. The afternoon's no-bias trending down to 2825.00 retraced to its 2837.50 as required, and eventually higher back up to attack 2856.00-2858.00. 30-54 point swings overnight left room only for several relatively puny 20-33 point swings intraday. Puny, or not, the intraday action still qualifies as sideways ranging. And having ranged sideways intraday following Wednesday's plunge, vulnerability to backing-and-filling either overnight or Friday morning or both still remains likely to resolve down. Wednesday night's 2817.75 low was complex enough to qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring eventual retest. Oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at Thursday's 2925.00 low already require its retest. Bouncing first would target at least (or only ) 2881.50-2883.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2854.50 2854.75 ...would target 2861.00 2861.25 Bias-down: under 2841.00 2841.50 ...would target 2831.00 2831.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.