Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 08-20-2015

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2083.00
2079.25
...would target 2089.25
2085.75
Bias-down: under 2073.00
2069.50
...would target 2065.75
2062.00
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Gapping down Wednesday to 2084.25 extended down 18 points to 2066.50 through the morning''s bias environment. Greeting the prematurely leaked FOMC Minutes from 2077.00 was soon extended 16 points to test 2093.00. But no matter how sizable, that leg had originated during a no-bias environment, requiring its complete retracement. A shallower bounce was retraced back down to 2077.00 into the cash session close, and then down to 2071.50 through the futures close

Overnight action''s new info...
Initially bouncing through midnight to retest 2077.00 was suddenly reversed back down through Wednesday''s late lows to attack Wednesday morning''s lows around 2067.00. Consolidating there through Europe''s opens eventually gave way to a 14-point drop touching 2053.50 -- 40 points under yesterday''s high.

If, then...
Yesterday''s gap down attracted new sponsorship after the open to extend the overnight decline. Last night''s drop may be overly-discounting that possibility. Lower lows were likely, and this action is in-line with the recent trend, But tomorrow''s option expiration may be exacerbating the decline as exposure is readjusted en masse. The result need not be a morning rally, but extending down more deeply would be difficult. Meanwhile, gapping down under yesterday''s low can turn yesterday''s WedEX more bearish by proxy.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2060.00 would likely not recover the 2062.00 bias-down target through 10:15, thereby renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2065.00 would likely hold above the 2062.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal

Has expiration jockeying run its course... for now?

Busy morning.

The pre-open Head & Shoulders reversal under 2061.00 was expected to become vulnerable to a bounce at 2055.25. Just touching 2055.25 produced a nearly immediate bounce that pierced the pre-open Head & Shoulders'' 2064.50 high.

That was just a corrective bounce, and its reaction down triggered a sell signal under 2060.50 putting my 2050.50 objective into play. It was eventually probed by nearly 3 points down to 2047.75.

2047.75 was retested while 1-minute RSI diverged positively. Its reaction up triggered a buy signal above 2050.50 that quickly met its 2056.50 buy signal.

So, three parameters and 21 cumulative points. Does this market need a rest, or is it falling apart? Perhaps a little of both. Exiting this morning''s bias environment at 11:30 in rally mode could extend higher through tomorrow''s open before a bearish WedEX takes control. Otherwise, resuming the decline would next target 2035.00.

And absorbing an expiration opening at new lows would be a tremendous challenge for a recovery to overcome.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2061.75
2058.25
...would target 2066.50
2063.25
Bias-down: under 2052.25
2049.00
...would target 2047.00
2043.50
Signal status: NOn-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday''s open gapped up from Wednesday''s close at 1.1120 resistance and extended higher until fulfilling its 1.1220 target. Closing higher Friday would confirm the trend had reversed. up. This is otherwise the upper-end of the range.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Thursday quickly extended to fulfill the 1144.00 target, but continued rallying to test 1153.30. Maintaining the rally''s momentum to next taget 1169.00 at this stage requires pullbacks to be shallow holding 1147.50 and for the next close to be higher .

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday didn''t extend higher intraday. And it held its test of last week''s prior highs. In both cases, price action underperformed Gold, suggesting that a pullback first might help them to lock back in tande..

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting up from Wednesday''s opening test of the 157-14 sell signal to end the day testing the 158-26 buy signal was extended higher immediately Thursday by trending up intraday to fresh highs up to 160-08. Probably spurred on by a flight-to-quality from falling stocks, while a retest of the recent 160-22 overnight high is likely, not reversing down already before noon could turn the rally exponential..

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Thursday doesn''t undermine the decline''s momentum, but it does open the door to forming a buy signal if fresh lows aren''t being probed into the weekend..

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reaction to Thursday''s EIA report triggered a surge that probed above 2.77, but it held as resistance through to allow another probe of fresh lows that can fulfill unfinished business below before a durable rally might form..

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2038.25
2035.00
...would target 2045.25
2042.00
Bias-down: under 2027.00
2023.75
...would target 2023.00
2019.75
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.