Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 09-10-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... (Values have been updated to Dec pricing, which becomes the front-month at this morning's open) Gapping up Wednesday to 1977.00 resistance couldn't resume the overnight rally, but easily retraced it, and by a 2-point margin down to 1956.25 through the morning bias environment's exit. A noon hour bounce to 1965.00 was obviously weak-handed resolved down to 1941.00 through the afternoon bias environment's exit. That neutralized unfinished business outstanding from Tuesday, but wait, there's more... Another downleg plunged to 1926.25, essentially turning a 29-point rally into a 29-point loss. Overnight action's new info... A relatively slightly lower low at 1924.00 couldn't attract sponsorship to resume the decline, and prices firmed into and out of midnight. The firming accelerated and extended to test 1947.00 into Europe's opens. Then things got interesting... A plunge to 1933.50 was soon recovered to fresh highs attacking 1958.00 -- which is interesting enough, but that surge has been retraced entirely and then some back down to 1932.00, probing under yesterday's close. If, then... My premise at yesterday's close was that sellers were most vulnerable. After neutralizing downside attractions, the decline not only extended but plunged, at a time when extreme sentiment tends to be a sentiment extreme, i.e. capitulation. And that still didn't put into play any lower objectives, since sellers didn't gain traction for their effort -- only the bias environment exit was under its prior timing window's low. So, did the overnight rally fulfill that premise and neutralize it? Its peak was a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of yesterday's intraday drop, which qualifies it as a correction. But that was overnight, and its retracement does allow the intraday crowd a bite at that apple. They'll have to greet the open already in rally mode to prevent the latest overnight leg from gaining its own traction and resuming yesterday's drop. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1941.25 would be likely also to trigger the 1939.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1935.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1926.50 would be likely to trigger the 1928.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Overnight rally repeats post open. Will the overnight rally's failure repeat, too? The pre-open drop seems to have repeated the decline's mistakes of yesterday afternoon. It neutralized objectives below at the 1922.75 and 1928.50 bias-down parameters. And it did so by plunging aggressively after already having dropped 30 points from the overnight high. Capitulation without any lower attractions made it easier for price to rise, simply for lack of selling. The open's surge to attack 1937.00 was retraced to 1925.00 before resuming the rally. But the 1928.50 bias-down was recovered through its grace period, putting into play an offsetting test of the 1939.50 bias-up signal. That extended to the 1945.50 bias-up target.

Rallying 20 points in 45 minutes resembled the overnight rally. Exploiting the same conditions that the overnight rally had exploited. So, will the overnight rally's failure repeat, too?

Already, the rally has retraced 13 points down to 1931.50. That's testing yesterday's 1931.00 cash session close. And that's natural support. So, it's likely that one or the other is done, either sellers or the corrective bounce. Back above the open's 1937.00 resistance would make the recovery credible for extending higher. But back under this morning's 1928.50 bias-down signal could unleash new lows.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1956.25 1944.75 ...would target  1961.25  1949.75 Bias-down: under  1946.50  1935.00 ...would target  1940.50  1929.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, BIAS-UP SIGNAL EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rally back within proximity of being more than a corrective bounce. I pointed out before the open that the overnight rally had held precisely at a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of yesterday's intraday decline. That natural resistance launched a reversal back down to the bounce's origin. And through it. Having probed under the bounce's origin -- i.e. yesterday afternoon's low, if not also under the overnight low -- recovering above their interim high would indicate more than a corrective bounce. And the overnight high's 1957.75 corrective bounce peak has been attacked to within 2-1/2 points at 1955.25.

That attack is during an invalidated no-bias environment, which broke above the 1944.75 through 1:30, after failing to trigger it at 1:20. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above its 1949.75 bias-up target would earn the late buyers the same credibility given to Tuesday afternoon's late buyers (who sponsored a 40-point rally).

But exiting the bias environment under 1949.75 would undermine buyers. And back under 1946.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Other support could prevent resuming yesterday's decline, but the recovery would have become very suspect.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) There was no more room or time allowed Thursday for further delaying an obvious recovery. Firming did produce a breakout above the multi-session range, now needing confirmation Friday from a second consecutive higher close. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday's drop to 1100.00 bounced overnight to gap up Thursday morning at 1110.00 resistance. Retesting Wednesday's low down to 1098.50 would help to form a durable bottom to the recent pullback. Extending much higher too quickly could be too impatient to be maintained. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Narrow ranging continued to avoid the unfinished business below at 14.35, while barely participating in Gold's gap up, so trending is still not yet credible. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Overnight weakness stopped short of filling the gap back down to Wednesday's 153-12 open. Two dips had attacked it to within a quarter-point before spiking up on the 30-year auction results. But that reaction melted away, keeping alive the attraction down to 153-12. Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Overnight follow-through to Wednesday's weakness was recovered enough pre-open and extended higher enough post-open to keep alive potential for probing fresh highs soon. But that doesn't allow room to hesitate in continuing to extend higher, to avoid a much steeper drop. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Gapping up Thursday from the range's 2.65 lower-end and extending higher intraday to test the range's 2.73 upper-end still hasn't broken above the ongoing channel to trigger a rally leg underway.

Foreclosing upon further upside didn't default to resuming the decline. So, that wasn't the decline resuming? Breaking 16 points in an hour from -- 1949.00 down to 1939.00 -- certainly seems like a decline. Of course, it is a decline, but it didn't necessarily resume the decline. In fact, both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs teased at oversold without breaking it. That's not selling pressure, that's prices falling of their own weight. And that's different from resuming the decline. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts, so there is no requirement for Friday to reward either. The last two Fridays ranged relatively narrowly after their opens. There's room for ranging a couple dozen points above and below Thursday's close, which will take a lot to resume the decline or to attempt another recovery. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap, click here. Following are chaRTroom links to monitor the overnight Globex session:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1961.25 1949.75 ...would target  1966.50  1955.00 Bias-down: under  1943.50  1932.00 ...would target  1935.50  1924.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.