Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night had eked its way to fresh highs at 2991.50 but greeted Monday's open 2 points lower, on the way to attack 2980.50. Reacting up to 2987.00 plunged to 2969.50 at the noon hour low, testing the Thu-Fri 2972.00-2973.00 lows, which held as support. The "outside day's" final hour retraced back into the range to attack 2980.50. Sunday night's high barely avoided the complexity that would qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme," and Monday's gap up was not the product of trending, so neither requires intraday retest. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their intraday efforts. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday evening's Globex immediately resumed the intraday recovery by adding nearly 5 points up to 2985.00. All of which was eventually retraced, and then reversed another 5 points down to 2975.00 well before midnight. The drop soon resumed and got to 2972.00 before Europe's opens, then to fresh lows at 2965.50 after. Now a bounce is probing a couple of points back above 2972.00-2973.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Rallying this morning all but requires gapping up, which certainly isn't indicated. So, having been unable to extend higher since Thursday morning, the rally is seeking strong-handed sponsorship at lower levels. Natural support at Thursday's 2966.00 opening print was already influential overnight, but is likely to be retested if the open can't maintain its recovery above 2972.00-2973.00. The next lower attractions are 2955.50 and 2949.00 -- probably the lower or their midpoint. Even lower is possible, but a recovery remains likely regardless, since three days spent consolidating Thursday's gap up is usually sufficient to form an anchor that is now too late to be rejected. A bottom today becomes unlikely if the open were to gap down under Monday afternoon's 2972.00 low to form a "session-long decline." First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2972.00 would be likely to trigger the 2974.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2977.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Digging deeper still. The overnight drop to 2965.50 had bounced to try recovering 2972.00-2973.00. Its recovery through the open could undermine sellers for the day. Surging in reaction to BOJ speculation tested 2978.00. But that only stretched the rubber band to snap back down to 2972.00-2973.00, and through it. Greeting the open at 2971.00 quickly collapsed to and through the overnight low to 2959.00. Lower lows printed down to 2957.25 renewing the bias-down signal.  None of which has prevented a bounce. The latest bounce has now tested and retested 2966.00. This was natural support from above, and it is now natural resistance from below. Back under 2962.00 (being tested now) would start to signal its resistance had held and the bounce is resuming. Extending the decline still has attractions at 2955.50 and 2949.00. But exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above 2966.00 would start to suggest that sellers may be done -- which they may be, but it's premature to pronounce.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2971.25 2971.75 ...would target 2977.25 2977.75 Bias-down: under 2962.50 2963.25 ...would target 2954.75 2955.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A funny thing happened on the way to a low. The open's drop to 2957.25 had reacted up to 2966.00 before the decline tried resuming. It got to only 2958.25 as the morning's bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. And it had yet to produce a fresh low in-line with the "session-long decline" setup. Then the downside was blind-sided by a China trade headline, triggering a surge to 2970.50. As with all artificial catalysts, the surge's origin or at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} was retraced. Higher recovery highs probed 2975.00.

We had just discussed in the chaRTroom the potential for a temporary mid-day corrective bounce to 2974.00. This isn't it. But it could suffice. Its reaction down to 2967.00 just avoided triggering bias-up. And a lot of selling pressure has been expended while barely even hinting at leaving negative territory.

Since the ongoing decline remains intact, and it's too late to break either bias signal, trending in either direction is unlikely during the afternoon bias environment. The "session-long decline" setup was already on life support

Tuesday's gap down 8 points from 2979.00 easily broke under 2972.00-2973.00 to form a "session-long decline" that extended down sharply to 2957.25. Renewed bias-down was triggered, for having exceeded both bias-down parameters through 10:15. But there was no lower since then. Perhaps there would have been, if not for a China trade headline triggering a surge to 2970.50 that extended 5 more points during the noon hour. Such a bounce was expected, but organically, for mid-day. The artificial catalyst changed the session's timing, and invalidated the session-long decline. It also prevented testing 2955.50, let alone 2949.00, where a durable recovery would have been likely. A durable recovery may be underway, anyway. Afternoon weakness only tested 2963.00 instead of resuming the decline. Which the last half-hour exploited by surging to unchanged attacking 2980.00. And recovering 2972.00-2973.00 decisively puts the burden of proof on sellers to retake control without delay Wednesday. Extending higher might encounter difficulty at recent higher, but could resume the rally to 2997.75 and 3014.00-3016.50. Not extending Tuesday's late surge into Wednesday's open would undermine the recovery attempt. Also, not extending Tuesday's late surge into Wednesday would probably already be greeting the open back under 2972.00-2973.00, and on the way down to 2949.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2981.50 2981.75 ...would target 2987.75 2988.00 Bias-down: under 2971.50 2971.75 ...would target 2965.25 2965.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.