Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday evening's 19-point surge from 3003.00-3022.00 was retraced entirely before Thursday's open, defining what would be the intraday range. Either end of which was retested before triggering the morning's bias, and then at least once more on either end again. The open's dip and the second intraday rally were organic, the interim (and pre-open) swings were headline reactions, and neither could break out from the initial range. The rally's next higher target at 3015.25-3018.25 held as resistance through the closing dip to 3010.50, instead of signaling new highs in-play targeting 3035.00. No "unfinished business" was left outstanding above, and no afternoon traction was gained either way. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday's late drop from 3023.25 got to 3010.00 before the Globex open. Price action since then has trended up relentlessly. But only now is 3023.25 being probed, and only momentarily to attack 3026.00 in reaction to a China trade headline. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Trending Friday will be difficult without already gapping open beyond either end of Thursday's range. Gapping open above Thursday afternoon's 3023.25 high could form a session-long rally. It's being tested now, and it didn't probably require another headline. Proximity to the highs could turn its probe into a short-squeeze. Either way, whether triggering a bullish or a bearish setup, Friday Factors could leverage the setup's momentum as the impending weekend illiquidity gets exponentially closer with each tick. By the same token, left to defend itself organically, the rally remains vulnerable to correcting for the impatient buying that abbreviated Tuesday's brief, shallow correction. Not yet trending or at least triggering a setup this morning could be left to only drift into the afternoon. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3020.75 would be likely to trigger the 3018.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3015.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight noise's optimism fizzles pre-open. Yesterday afternoon's 3023.00 high was retraced by relentless overnight trending. Then probed to attack 3026.00 in reaction to a China trade headline, which was also at the 3025.00 bias-up target's resistance. All of which still qualified only as optimistic noise when the Market Tour discussed it.

At least the bounce was postured to recover yesterday afternoon's high through the open to form a session-long rally. But the setup evaporated with a reaction down, greeting the open back under the 3018.50 bias-down signal. My pre-open update pointed out the resulting setup suggested a difficult trading environment this morning. Unfortunately, true.

Two attempts to break lower failed through the open, which on Fridays can establish the session low. But that also depends on exploiting the failures. So far, bounces have held tests of the 3016.75 opening print's resistance and the bias-up signal itself. A probe above the bias-up signal is now being attempted up to 3020.75. This being a Friday, the morning's no-bias influence usually persists through the noon hour. No-bias trending beyond either bias signal would require being retraced. Only no-bias trending under the bias-down signal should be aggressive. Probing fresh highs could be no more than noise again.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3016.75 3020.00 ...would target 3023.25 3026.50 Bias-down: under 3009.25 3012.75 ...would target 3003.50 3007.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Potential for trending still no better, but still potential. Trying to trend early Friday morning, and failing, often forms a session extreme. But that's not very relevant without also signaling that momentum is reversing up. And and the only reversal up was an ill-timed momentary probe of the 3018.50 bias-up signal during a no-bias window. It only stretched the rubber band to return to the open's 3012.00 low. The door remains open to trending down, and could extend deeply and steeply. But not without a signal. And now this afternoon's 3012.75 bias-down signal has held its test to trigger another no-bias. "No-bias trending" Friday afternoon is easier to begin -- it's another Friday Factor influence that comes from the impending weekend illiquidity. This not a sell signal, and only suggests that breaking lower prematurely could be credible for extending. Breaking higher is also possible, but the market is only attacking the bias-down signal, and only extending down would likely be deep and steep.

Relentless overnight trending probed momentarily 3 points above Thursday afternoon's 3023.00 high. Gapping up any higher could have formed a bullish "session-long rally." Both of the morning's bias-up parameters could have been exceeded. And Friday Factors could have enabled a short-squeeze to new highs into the weekend. But the open was greeted back under Thursday's high, back under both bias-up parameters, back down to 3017.00. So much for that. We knew by the pre-open update that the morning would not be an attractive trading environment. And it wasn't. Regardless, the greater vulnerability was down. The afternoon's no-bias environment probed fresh lows, repeatedly recovering to its 3012.75 bias-down signal. The final hour probed fresh lows to test 3006.00, and also recovered up to 3012.75. The close was overlapping Thursday's last-minute 3010.50 lows. This setup would have been a compelling hold-short on any other day of the week, but not into the weekend illiquidity. Nevertheless, without an artificial catalyst such as a headline to trigger another rally, an organic pullback is likely to continue, and likely to probe under Wednesday afternoon's 2992.50 low. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3011.00 3014.50 ...would target 3018.75 3022.25 Bias-down: under 3001.25 3004.75 ...would target 2995.00 2998.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.