Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday was greeted by a third consecutive overnight rally. Probing Tuesday's 3409.00 high up to 3418.50 was reversed down to 3392.00, but left unfinished business at 3384.25 while an optimistic bounce to 3412.50 contradicted the bias. Its reatracement down to 3393.00 left more unfinished business at 3388.00 while FOMC triggered another bounce to fresh highs at 3419.50. Tumbling out of the bias environment finally fulfilled all unfinished business and extended down to 3374.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday's quasi-pivot reversal setup had already suggested the afternoon decline would extend down without delay. Its compelling hold-short setup was rewarded by trending down sharply into Europe's opens. Initial firming up to 3386.50 soon gave way to a 75-point collapse that attacked 3310.00. The long-mentioned "air pocket" under 3341.00 made itself evident, in two directions, quickly retracing its collapse back up to 3347.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The long-mentioned "air pocket" under 3341.00 may get a chance to repeat intraday, since the overnight collapse was retraced entirely. Otherwise, the morning could be spent filling the gap, or its gap-to-gap proxy that I'm projecting currently around 3355.00. Opening action should indicate either. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3355.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3358.50 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

Post-open action is more optimistic. The overnight bounce from 3310.00 back up to 3347.00 was retraced down to 3316.00. Bouncing into and out of the open has extended up to 3364.00. Which is only probing above the 3358.50 bias-down target as resistance. This is a renewed bias-down environment, so any higher would be limited to the 3369.75 bias-down signal. Also still being tested is room for noise above the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement at 3356.50 -- entering the noon hour under its 3343.75 counterpart would confirm the corrective bounce is done. Entering the noon hour back above its 3369.75 bias-down signal would suggest the corrective bounce is extending, or potentially being rejected by another rally. An interim dip to 3341.00 ignored the opportunity to repeat the overnight air pocket behavior that collapsed 31 points under it. Now having reacted to a fresh recovery high, retesting 3341.00 would have a new setup that at least makes its break likelier, regardless of its character being collapse-like.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3347.50 signal would target 3360.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3333.00 signal would target 3324.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3358.00 3347.50 ...would target 3370.75 3360.25 Bias-down: under 3343.50 3333.00 ...would target 3335.00 3324.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Attempting to reject both bias down parameters. This morning's rally up to 3365.00 was retraced entirely back down to the 3320.00 opening low, probing it down to 3318.00 at the noon hour low. Bouncing to the afternoon's 3333.00 bias-down signal held, and its 3324.50 bias-down target was tested again. Now another bounce is retesting the 3333.00 bias-down signal as resistance. This being a bias-down environment, its bias-down signal is likely to define the window's upper-end. Probing higher would require retracing the signal, and often would retrace the 1:20 print, too. Already having met the bias-down target, rallying through the bias-down signal would likely be very aggressive. Now probing above the 3333.00 bias-down signal will require retracing 3333.00, and potentially also 3325.25. Exiting the bias window above its 3347.50 bias-up signal would negate the requirement to retrace back down.

A compelling hold short at Wednesday's 3377.00 close was rewarded by collapsing overnight to 3310.00. The last leg was the air pocket under 3341.00, whose recovery still had time for dipping again to 3316.00 into Thursday's open. A bigger bounce through the morning tested 3365.00 before collapsing again through the noon hour to 3316.00. Another bounce to 3341.00 was retraced before resolving up to 3354.00 through the close. Thursday's 3347.00 cash session close had recovered 3341.00 too late to be relevant. Futures only attacked its 3355.00 counterpart. All of which reflects weak-handed bulls for trending up so late when buyers would gain no traction for the effort, and expending so much buying pressure to only attack relevant resistance. This being expiration, odd unusual influences are possible if not outright likely. A bigger bounce is possible, but probably not without gapping up above Thursday morning's 3365.00 high. Probing higher without opening strongly would be that much more vulnerable to reversing down through the afternoon. Already trending down into Thursday's open would be vulnerable to trending down under Wednesday night's lows into the afternoon. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3355.00 signal would target 3366.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3341.00 signal would target 3327.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3365.50 3355.00 ...would target 3376.50 3366.00 Bias-down: under 3351.25 3341.00 ...would target 3337.50 3327.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE