Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday was book-ended by trade war news. Sunday afternoon headlines triggered a gap down that hovered 2904.00 overnight. Testing and attacking Friday's 2911.25 fresh high close before and after Monday's open found plenty of sellers post-open. The morning bias-down signaled and its target was met, as were the afternoon bias parameters when more headlines announced that tariffs would be announced post-close. The optimal 2897.00 pullback limit was probed by 4-5 points, and then recovered 1 minute after the close, too late to be bullish. Overnight action's new info... Another trade war headline onslaught, and another brief effect. The forewarned tariff headlines were greeted at 2893.50, which is Tuesday morning's bias-down signal. The first reaction collapsed down to 2887.50, which is Tuesday morning's bias-down target. Another dip extended down to 2883.50, where a rally began, recovering to 2893.50 by midnight. The rally resumed and recovered to greet Europe's opens in positive territory, absorbing a brief dip before extending higher to touch 2903.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Before yesterday's close, Monday's pullback would have ended as a very natural pullback by holding the test of 2897.00's "lower prior highs." After yesterday's close failed that, reinstating upside momentum could be done by proxy at the following open. But being one timing window later would require opening above the next prior high, which is 2903.00. That's where the open is currently indicated. More so, another potentially bullish setup has developed after probing under Monday's low, which is to isolate its probe to the overnight by opening back up within Monday's range -- and not probing back under it intraday. Avoiding either setup to instead open under yesterday's low could still complete the pullback by holding a test of 2887.00-2888.00. But any deeper of a pullback would be bearish, while fully forming at least one setup without also triggering it would be as bearish as it would have been bullish. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2903.50 would be likely to trigger the 2901.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2897.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

At least two bullish setups triggered. Yesterday's failure to close above 2897.00 was done by proxy. Exiting the next relevant window recovering the next relevant level -- today's opening 15 minutes of volatility, above yesterday afternoon's 2903.00 last relative high. Pre-open action had jeopardized the setup. Already touching 2903.00 overnight, and eventually probing it by 1 point, another trade war headline triggered a drop to 2895.50. But that allowed us to identify an immediately actionable buy signal above 2901.25 that triggered on the way up to this morning's 2907.50 bias-up target. Proxy success. Its reaction down touched this morning's 2901.50 bias-up signal as a detached bar. That launched another surge to fresh highs attacking 2909.00. The 2907.50 bias-up target wasn't exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment, so the 2901.50 bias-down signal should define its low if retested, and extending higher would next target 2912.25.

Of course, the Isolation setup is forming, so long as this morning avoids probing under yesterday's low. Its minimum objective is to retrace the origin of the pullback's isolated low, which is Friday's highs -- including the 2917.25 "new Globex trend extreme."

Similar to last week's Rosh Hashanah holiday, tomorrow's Yom Kippur observance will dampen volume and liquidity. That effect will begin this afternoon as participants leave early today for evening services. So, more important to the rally is not whether it extends, but how the afternoon is greeted, which we'll review later.  

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2909.00 2915.25 ...would target 2914.50 2920.75 Bias-down: under 2901.75 2908.00 ...would target 2896.75 2903.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: MARKET WRAP IS EARLY TODAY AT 3:21 ET. This morning's 2912.25 renewed bias-up target wasn't triggered at 10:15, which had only held a test of the 2907.50 bias-up target. But 2907.50 was exceeded quickly, and it was still a bias-up environment. And 2912.25 was met as the bias environment started lapsing. The rally extended into a noon surge that touched 2916.25. Coming within 3 ticks of last Friday's pre-open "new Globex trend extreme" doesn't neutralize its unfinished business,being a structural point and not calculable. The premature hesitation does reflect pessimism, or at least restrained optimism, in either case bullish from a contrarian perspective. Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias, holding a test of its 2915.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the window under 2911.25 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway, perhaps only to test 2907.00. Rallying would likely probe 2920.00. Neither is very reliable with volume thinning ahead of Yom Kippur's observance.

The Isolation setup's minimum objective, or reward, is to retrace the last leg's origin. Which would be a new high for the setup that formed through Tuesday's open. Tuesday's open at or above 2897.00, which already exited the afternoon bias environment probing 2 ticks above last week's 2917.25 "new Globex trend extreme." So, that's done. Meanwhile, another setup formed by exiting the open above Monday afternoon's last relative high at 2903.00. Which made up by proxy for Monday's close not recovering 2897.00. The setup has no particular objective or reward, only the indication of the pullback having ended. So, Tuesday's retest of Friday's highs should extend, and not form a top. Not necessarily in a straight line. Thinner volume during Wednesday's Yom Kippur holiday will inhibit extending the trend, while a pullback could easily dip to 2903.00 alone as noise. Thinning volume can also make it difficult to stop price that extends higher anyway. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2909.25 2915.25 ...would target 2914.75 2920.75 Bias-down: under 2901.75 2908.00 ...would target 2896.75 2903.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.