Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A compelling hold short at Wednesday's 3377.00 close was rewarded by collapsing overnight to 3310.00. The last leg was the air pocket under 3341.00, whose recovery still had time for dipping again to 3316.00 into Thursday's open. A bigger bounce through the morning tested 3365.00 before collapsing again through the noon hour to 3316.00. Another bounce to 3341.00 was retraced before resolving up to 3354.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday's late bounce initially extended up to 3358.50, then fell to 3331.00. Rallying through midnight recovered most of the fall into Europe's opens. A brief dip to 3343.00 was recovered back up to 3357.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's 3347.00 cash session close had recovered 3341.00 too late to be relevant. Now hovering overnight around 3355.00 is also irrelevant timing. Exiting the open beyond the range would be likely to trend in that direction. But probing either end of yesterday's 3318.00-3365.00 range would likely be retraced unless also broken already through the open. This being expiration, trending through the open is often suggests the morning's direction. This being Friday, the morning's bias often persists through the noon hour. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3360.25 would be likely to trigger the 3355.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3350.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3345.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3341.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3337.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Trying to reject. A final pre-open thrust up to 3363.00 reacted down to plunge through the 3355.00 open. That plunge entered aggressively into a running correction, which was exited aggressively to start forming my 5-stage setup.

Stage-3's low tends to be similar in timing to Stage-1's downleg. Its measurement tends to be a Fibonacci ratio exceeding Stage-1, which in this case was 161.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} upon testing 3333.00. That's where we expect Stage-4 to form, either a trough, or simply to violate its bounce limit on the way back up to Stage-5. Stage-5's target is the running correction's retracement, which in this case targeted 3351.00.

Meeting it often resumes Stage-1's trend. Meeting 3351.00 did resume Stage-1's trend, extending to fresh lows at 3326.00.

Meanwhile a no-bias was triggered. Probing under its 3341.00 bias-down signal is no-bias trending that requires retracing 3341.00 -- if not also the 3346.75 10:15 print. Exiting the bias environment under its 3327.25 bias-down target would negate the required retracement. Finally, this being expiration, and influential oddities already developing, stay on alert for more wide swings and moves. Probing under Wednesday night's 3310.25 low remains likely, potentially today if a bigger bounce hasn't developed this afternoon.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3337.50 signal would target 3348.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3323.00 signal would target 3311.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3347.75 3337.50 ...would target 3358.25 3348.00 Bias-down: under 3333.25 3323.00 ...would target 3321.25 3311.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Sharply lower, meeting targets. This morning's 5-stage pattern reversed down sharply and immediately from its 3351.00 corrective bounce target. Probes under the morning's 3327.25 bias-down target were isolated between 11:30-noon while the bias environment lapsed. So, no-bias trending under the morning's 3341.00 bias-down signal requires being retraced. Good luck with that.

Trending down through the open on expiration already signaled its downtrending influence. Not so much itself as to prevent retracing the no-bias trending. But now having collapsed to finally retest last Tuesday night's 3386.00 low (on the same relentless leg that triggered a sell signal under 3325.00), expiration's downtrending influence will inhibit recovering today.

The low's retest down to 3380.75 is now fulfilling its bounce potential up to 3296.00-3299.00 up to 3301.00 Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the low require its retest, which would be triggered back under 3293.50. I'll still monitor for any accumulative behavior, but resuming the decline could reach 3233.00 today.

Last-minute overnight highs up to 3363.00 proved quite the head-fake, as its reversal slid sharply through Friday's expiration open to attack 3332.00. The bias environment eventually fell further to attack Thursday's lows around 3320.00. And the noon hour's collapse fulfilled the retest of last Tuesday night's 3286.50 low down to 3280.75. Rallying into the last half-hour attacked the 3318.00 bounce potential to within 3 ticks. Oversold RSIs at the 3280.75 low require its eventual retest, presumably down to 3277.00 and then potentially down to 3233.00. No-bias trending under the morning's 3341.00 bias-down target requires being retraced eventually. Either piece of unfinished business above or below can be neutralized overnight. Trend extremes aren't usually associated with expirations, so probing under Friday's fresh low is likely. An exception for Friday's low being a prior low's retest would have been credible if its reaction were recovered back above a relevant level. But the late bounce only attacked higher prior lows, which held. Happy Rosh Hashanah! See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3321.25 signal would target 3333.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3298.25 signal would target 3283.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3331.50 3321.25 ...would target 3343.25 3333.00 Bias-down: under 3308.00 3298.25 ...would target 3293.00 3283.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE