Stock Market Pre-Open Plan - 7:37 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's pre-open dip barely touched Friday's 2517.75 last-minute high before rallying to within 1 tick of the morning's 2526.00 bias-up target. Sunday night's action had developed exclusively in positive territory. Neither of which is bearish, but expressing so much optimism for so long and being fulfilled so quickly does tend to retrace. Especially when simultaneously overbought RSIs will ensure the retracement is only temporary. The morning's dip to 2519.00 held its corrective pullback target. Recovering through the balance of the session finally touched the morning's high at the close. Overnight action's new info... Monday's last-minute pierce above the morning's high had extended to 2528.00 through the futures close. The Globex open quickly retraced that to 2525.50 and then recovered to higher highs at 2529.50 into midnight. Complexity during the rally has created a "new Globex trend extreme." Price action since then has softened gradually back down to 2527.25. If, then... Optimism remained alive and well during Monday morning's correction of Sunday night and opening optimism. Its pullback held exclusively in positive territory. So, correcting the overnight optimism this morning should probe well into negative territory -- of else not correct, at all. Last night's high requires an intraday retest, which often prints the same day. I'll be reluctant to sell before then, unless its near-term attraction is already rejected by opening under the overnight low. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2525.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2527.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2528.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it's time for Tuesday's Morning Market to her interesting overnight in that it is somewhat similar in principle to Sunday night One important principle and that is it has essentially developed exclusively in positive territory little bit different Sunday night had surged at the open creating immediately creating room to absorb or expanded selling pressure without it damaging the chart expended immediately began expanding and of selling pressure to Rat Race that surge literally just as deeply as possible without reversing back down piercing really Friday's range then of course we have to 6184 Tradesman and pre-open dip and in the opening surge more initial optimism creating again room to expand its selling pressure without damaging the chart and had a shower pull back to you yesterday morning that was touched by a tick Oracle point because that even though it doesn't require of course there's objectives below it like 2509 5506 2509 53rd Friday's nobody has trending broke out so we know there's retracement coming but 2509 doesn't require any particular orbit that is going to be that is going to be capable of it's not likely to offer some obligatory support on the way down so let's talk about that yesterday with all that excessive optimism not just Sunday night and I don't mean Sunday's opening search but the entire night having developed exclusively in positive territory and then the mornings opening search not that it was an opening but then it quickly 2526 attacked so lot of Need for correction or likelihood at least of Correction fullback all of that action developed this morning it's not likely to develop exclusively in positive territory I made two statements there and that is very action this morning will be unlikely to develop exclusively and likely to before I pull back touching the prior sessions range recovered do have another higher hi there is complexity so whatever and it went on to be 2950 today Austin that requirement is met the same day not always here's a setup that would tell us it won't be and that is if the open is back under the overnight low having dipped initially at the Globex overnight not as silly open but overnight and recovered do a higher high above the prior session so I have nothing to do with a new trend extreme just a new trend. I haven't recovered to probe the prior sessions high after dipping back into it overnight that new set that trimmed that hire High tire low Trend can be rejected by opening under the overnight low so that's 25 2558 25-25-25 if this morning which was pretty close to two points away 2 hours to go we can do that if the open is back under the open is back under the overnight low and maintaining the breaker that will ever ejected the New York to sell if the open isn't rejecting the overnight highs of attraction or I'll be reluctant to sell unless the guys were tested Post open but either one of those scenarios would open the door to a cell signal otherwise if the open isn't already rejecting the overnight High then there's nothing that forbids this from extending Ireland something that requires an intraday pull back and correction so eyes on the overnight High and a 59fifty range through the open one of the other being tested being probed the opening 15 minutes is going to give us the guidance for the morning for the day any questions 1760 which was attacked stopping optimistically short of it last week requiring a test will they test you can see the actual recognition of 1764 that's an anchor basically and so this is only a temporary but it's about able to do that still looking for that there was so I could be considered pretty big drop yesterday at the open so there's room for noise on a balance and then we could see 134 easily we can see it be pierced and still maintain the down trip and the Aussie fresh low overnight there's a lot of action in here it's lower and lower lows the downtrend remains intact so I don't have any bicycle silver didn't do anything new over night that had been done still targeting 1650 it has a rejected that are indicated any inclination to reject it and gold as well while it has fulfilled 1253 test by at least a dollar nothing suggesting that it's trying to buy them literally Gap flat to lower there's a confirmed break out the requires the risk here is that it is not developing from a higher close is that a great trade it we're just trying to identify a bottom at this point I would have preferred 5314 first break lower for that for that third lower close to be fulfilled or likely to recover more quickly but we are still looking for at least crude oil Natural Gas but didn't really agree that we can suggest so still around 293 needs to avoid needs to avoid a second today to have a chance but even if there were an immediate rally after having touched at least they close today .

Stock Market Opening Strategy - 10:18 AM

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Still hovering under the overnight high. The open was greeted in a narrow range around the 2527.50 bias-up signal. A post-open dip finally appeared. It came to within 3 ticks of the 2525.25 objective that would have been likely to hold and to reverse up. If done early enough. Coming to within 3 ticks at 2526.00 proved sufficient to hold, and to recover. But so far, only to recover, back up to 2529.25. Reversing up is something else. And not at all assured.

I'm still reluctant to sell within the orbit of the overnight high. It's a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest.

But not triggering the 2527.50 bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2520.25 bias-down signal. Back under 2525.25 would start to signal that leg is already underway. Otherwise, back above 2528.00 would suggest "no-bias trending" will retest the overnight high.

Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM

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TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2531.75  2529.00 ...would target  2537.25 2534.50 Bias-down: under  2528.00 2525.25 ...would target  2523.00  2520.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Day Trading Help - Mid-Day - 1:50 PM

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Narrow range persists. Germany and China are both closed today. They're also both asleep now. Or close to it. But this morning's narrow ranging persists. The lack of volatility hasn't attracted new sponsorship, so the market continues hovering at or under the 2529.50 overnight high. The overnight high is a "new Globex trend extreme" that required intraday retest. Now the attraction above is neutralized. RSIs aren't overbought, so there's no other "unfinished business above." Dropping from this pattern tends to begin suddenly. Retracing ground is a lot easier than forging through untouched territory. Breaking higher would still be credible for extending since counter-trend sponsorship is no easier to attract. But the greater vulnerability is back down -- this morning's 2520.25 is "unfinished business below," as is Monday morning's 2509.50.

Market Performance Signals - 4:32 PM

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Monday night's relentless optimism was relatively shallow. But it would have been labeled as excessive optimism had Tuesday's open reversed back under the overnight low. It didn't. The open didn't do much but fluctuate around the morning's 2527.50 bias-up signal. Triggering no-bias was almost accidental, considering the narrow aimless ranging.

But an offsetting test of the morning's 2520.25 bias-down signal was put into play. And it wasn't invalidated, so it became "unfinished business below."

Those "unfinished business belows" are adding up, not unlike a monthly bar tab that suddenly comes due. Under 2520.25 is Monday morning's no-bias trending retracement from 2509.50. And potentially lower.

Meanwhile, Tuesday's rally held a test of the morning's 2532.00 bias-up target. It was never put into play, but as long as it's being tested, it should define the detour before fulfilling the 2520.25 bias objective. Having trended up into Tuesday's close, gapping down Wednesday under Tuesday afternoon's 2528.50 low could form a "session-long decline." The trend otherwise remains up, next targeting 2541.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.


Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM

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WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2535.50 2532.75 ...would target  2540.75  2538.00 Bias-down: under  2529.50  2526.75 ...would target  2523.00  2520.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.