Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 10-07-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... But for the morning's momentary probe above Monday's 1980.00 high, Tuesday was an "inside day," contained entirely within Monday's range. It might have seemed more substantial in the moment, being under pressure the entire day. But that was the expectation for the day before it even began, and the session didn't deviate from its purpose. The afternoon's fluctuation did not reflect buyers or sellers gaining traction. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's lows were probed down to 1960.50 in reaction to high-profile earnings misses (setting the stage for the quarterly earnings onslaught?). The balance of the night rallied back to and through Tuesday's high to 1985.50. A pullback into yesterday's range at 1975.50 is now trying to resume the rally, currently testing 1980.00. If, then... The rally need not resume without delay, but it must resume on its first intraday attempt. The overnight action provides a template -- probing fresh highs, pulling back into the range, and then... Post-open action can duplicates this overnight pattern, either extending the rally attempt immediately, or following a pullback into the range. But pulling back too deeply, before upside momentum is re-established, would be vulnerable to launching a new downleg to probe under overnight lows. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1981.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1981.00 bias-up target (same level as each other) at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1974.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1976.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Early surge drops back. Every timing window that mattered through the open was able to extend the per-open rally. Momentum did not falter until after entering  the bias environment at 10:15, and probing new highs up to 1991.25. And then it faltered a lot. Triggered by the EIA report on Crude Oil, a 20-point reversal down is exiting the bias environment back within yesterday afternoon's range. It's still positive territory, and it's still above this morning's bias-down signal. It may be too late for the bias environment to begin lapsing above a prior high, but entering the noon hour back above this morning's 1976.00 bias-up signal would suggest a detour was ending. Entering the noon hour under 1964.00 would suggest instead this isn't a detour at all.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1991.00 1981.00 ...would target  1996.00  1986.00 Bias-down: under  1980.50 1970.50 ...would target 1974.00  1964.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Tuesday's gap up and intraday extension had gone out probing the pattern's 1.1265 bounce limit, but Wednesday's inside day attacked Tuesday's lows. There is no current signal. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Having trended sharply higher during Tuesday's breakout and then extending higher overnight, Wednesday's gap up peaked almost immediately up filling its gap back to the high's close. Reacting down into negative territory did manage to the 2-1/2 week old high close. Reacting down into negative territory was recovered, albeit not decisively enough to confirm Tuesday's breakout. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday's extension higher had already indicated the rally was stretched, but Wednesday's hesitation ranged flat-to-higher, attacking 16.10, and still having room for a pullback down to 15.55. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Momentarily probing Tuesday's low overnight was recovered Wednesday, but only for a largely inside day ahead of Thursday's auction. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Trading higher into Wednesday's open to a fresh high at 49.71 was cut short by a surprising EIA report that sent price into negative territory. Tuesday's breakout wasn't confirmed. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday's opening surge filled the gap back up to 2.52, so that closing above it would now trigger a new upleg. There isn''t otherwise a sell signal.

https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyftpzv (FYI -- I'm aware the new email system is truncating the content. I've asked the developer to correct this, but you'll need to follow the blog's link meanwhile. Thank you!) The no-bias environment's rally came within 1 point of its 1988.75 target before gravity sneaked in. I never found sellers credible for retaking control since the drop had originated so late. But it did bottom upon retracing both the 1981.00 bias-up signal and the 1977.50 print. And eventually rallying after the position-squaring window did meet the 1988.75 target. Buyers gained no traction, as exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's range didn't extend up into the final hour's entry. So, resuming the rally Thursday will require gapping up. Extending higher anyway would be doomed to failure. Wednesday had a similar condition, and did gap up -- that didn't prevent an intraday dive but the dive did recover. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyftpzv

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at the ilinc platform only this week:   non-xp ilinc

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1999.75 1990.00 ...would target  2005.75  1996.00 Bias-down: under  1988.75  1979.00 ...would target 1983.75 1974.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.