Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday was greeted by relentless overnight trending at 3381.00. Exiting the open above the 3385.00 pre-open high signaled that strong-handed reinforcements had arrived to extend the rally. The morning improved only slightly from there, but holding up through the noon hour kept upside momentum intact. No-bias trending extended higher to attack 3417.00. The 3401.50 afternoon bias signal requires being retraced. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday's last-minute dip to 3403.50 reacted up immediately at the Globex open. Probing above Wednesday's high was consolidated through midnight. Europe's opens was greeted by a surge to 3433.00. Reversing down sharply to attack 3414.00 tested Wednesday's high as support, which is holding. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) All of Wednesday's buying pressure was expended just to retrace most of Tuesday's headline reaction plunge, and no traction was gained for the effort. Trending higher this morning requires gapping up, which overnight action currently indicates. Overnight action has also met 3433.00 -- and responded to it -- the next higher objective above retesting overbought RSIs from Tuesday's high. Reversing down has little excuse for delay, other than to repeat testing and holding 3433.00 intraday. Meanwhile, extending the rally has no excuse for delay, needing to exploit a gap up or else lose upside momentum. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3425.25 would be likely to exceed the 3422.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3417.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 3414.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3411.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up maintained, next higher targets in-play. The overnight test of 3433.00 didn't require duplication intraday. Satisfying the next higher target was free to launch a downleg. More so, without yesterday's rally gaining traction.

Instead, the opening 15 minutes maintained a gap up above prior highs. At least not downtrending created a position of strength. Probing higher is likely. The next higher objective is 3441.00-3444.00.

Getting there is the battle. Just getting started is proving to be a battle, too.

The open's position of strength could have been used to ensure recovering from attracting stronger-handed buyers at lower lows. A stimulus headline from Mnuchin interrupted that effort to retest the highs. While that might be rewarded anyway by trending up this morning -- whether or not up to 3441.00-3444.00 -- its sponsorship isn't any stronger-handed. Fresh highs would be vulnerable to reversing down when this bias environment lapses. The most bullish scenario may be to continue ranging narrowly sideways through this bias window, delaying a break higher. Regardless, back under 3417.00-3418.00 would signal a bigger downleg already underway.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3433.00 signal would target 3441.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3415.25  signal would target 3407.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3442.50 3433.00 ...would target 3451.25 3441.75 Bias-down: under 3424.50 3415.25 ...would target 3416.50 3407.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

REMINDER: I'M AWAY FROM SCREENS FOR TODAY'S LAST 2 HOURS. This morning's bias environment pierced a fresh post-open high up to 3436.00 well after the open. The delay had suggested stronger-handed buyers could be found lower around 3415.00. But optimistic stimulus headlines from Mnuchin triggered the high's retest prematurely.

The likely consequence for extending higher impatiently would have been to fail, if not also to reverse down sharply. Another consequence intervened, anxiously reacting down to Pelosi's pessimistic stimulus headlines.

A deeper pullback probed fresh post-open lows at 3419.00 before bouncing back into the earlier range. While that was the gap-to-gap's upper-end, it was still too shallow for attracting much stronger-handed buyers. That didn't prevent bouncing back to the range's upper-end. Same consequence, so far. Reacting down again from session highs has now failed to trigger the 3433.00 afternoon bias-up signal. Probing it prematurely would be no-bias trending and also likely to fail. But it would still have potential up to the 3431.00-3444.00. Back under 3417.00 would signal a deeper downleg underway. That signal would be adjusted higher after probing fresh session highs.

Gapping up Thursday was the only way to extend Wednesday's rally since no traction had been gained for the effort. The 3433.00 overnight high was the rally's next higher target, and reacting down to Wednesday's 3417.00 high was recovered through Thursday's open. Despite the open forming a position of strength, the morning only ranged choppily sideways at or under 3433.00. And the afternoon only ranged narrowly around 3433.00. A post-close surge finally met the next higher 3341.00-3344.00 target up to 3347.00. The post-close surge's catalyst was a Trump stimulus headline. Globex has already extended to attack 3455.00. All of which comes from Thursday's shallow base. Just testing 3341.00-3344.00 intraday was likely to fail, if not also to snap back down sharply and substantially. Extending overnight has potential to gap up higher and then become exacerbated by Friday Factors. Friday Factors can work in either direction, so already trending back down overnight would be vulnerable to accelerating its pace into the weekend. In a town that gets paid to spend other people's money, a stimulus deal's potential never really dies. So, an offsetting negative stimulus headline never seems to offset the gains produced by positive stimulus headlines. But that may be the only headline that can impact the rally. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3442.25 signal would target 3455.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3430.00 signal would target 3418.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3451.50 3442.25 ...would target 3464.25 3455.00 Bias-down: under 3439.25 3430.00 ...would target 3427.50 3418.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE