Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Sunday night's rally into Monday's gap up at 2158.00 wasn't done. The open extended to 2163.50. Then it was done. Depressed holiday volume limited new sponsorship for anything more than hovering at the highs. That ended with the renewed bias-up environment, and the balance of the session drifted down to its 2156.50 objective. Surging into the futures close came too late to reverse momentum up. No unfinished business was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Firming a couple of more points soon attacked 2161.00. Like Monday's intraday action, the balance of the night has resumed drifting downward. Hovering around the support of this morning's 2154.25 bias-down signal was probed momentarily to attack 2152.00, but 2154.25 has attracted price back up to it. If, then... Spending the entire session in positive territory yesterday didn't gain traction for its effort, so resuming the rally to fresh highs this morning depended on gapping up above yesterday's highs. And that's not likely without already probing higher overnight. The alternative isn't necessarily bearish -- Sunday night's rally hasn't been retraced even after extending yesterday afternoon's drift overnight, expending a lot of selling pressure without gaining traction for its effort. So, not quickly rejecting the overnight dip would more likely only back-and-fill a little deeper this morning, as opposed to launching another downleg. Quickly rejecting the overnight dip could at least spend the morning rallying back to yesterday's highs, just not through them. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2157.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2154.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2151.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Backing-and-filling hardly defines this morning's action. Not indicating a gap up this morning had left only one path up, and it had to be exploited immediately at the open. But for the first minute blipping-up to attack the 2154.25 bias-down signal, there was no immediate buying pressure. Not much delayed buying pressure, either. So, the direction has been down. That's not surprising, since the open didn't meet its bullish parameters. But it's surprising anyway. Very surprising. The downside action was likely to be only backing-and-filling. A few air pockets uncovered, but quickly recovered. This morning has been more like dropping a rock from the top of a cliff. The 2149.75 bias-down target and the 2143.50 renewed bias-down target were exceeded through 10:15 as the bias timing window was triggering. Now the bias environment is within view of lapsing, and 2133.25 has been touched.

RSIs are oversold at the low, suggesting that a bounce from here would fail, too. There is no requirement to recover, anyway. And there's no bullish reason to be revisiting recent lows -- let alone to be probing under them.

Perhaps most bearish of all is that there is no specific reason for the slide. So, there is no scapegoat to value and to assume has been discounted. That's the "uncertainty" we always hear how much the market hates.

Meanwhile, the bias-down environment is ending. Its oversold RSIs won't allow a durable recovery. And the series of lower lows and lower highs is a downtrend, which doesn't suddenly reverse up substantially. Any bounces remain likely to be only temporary. And not recovering out of the noon hour could instead see the afternoon double this morning's drop.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2143.00 2136.25 ...would target  2149.00 2142.50 Bias-down: under  2137.50  2131.00 ...would target  2132.00 2125.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Nothing bullish about this relentless slide. At least a reaction to news offers the opportunity to price in the catalyst. Regardless of wide disparities among perception of that value, there's something to value. And there's a sentiment that can play out. A reaction to bad news is different than price simply collapsing. Which is what is happening today.

None of today's various news is creditable for today's drop. Not for its relentlessness, trending down through every timing window. Not for its damage, breaking under "lower prior highs," a gap, and prior lows. And not for its timing, immediately following a probe of prior highs.

Notice the one element I did not mention: Price. Price is relative to range, and is otherwise irrelevant. In fact, today's drop isn't that substantial compared to the range that it's probing. This is even more bearish than not having a scapegoat, since there's plenty of room to expend more selling pressure.

Currently this afternoon's 2125.25 bias-down target is being tested. Late no-bias had triggered, by the grace of a single tick and a single minute. A more decisive no-bias would require recovering at least to 2131.00. Still possible, although oversold RSIs at the low would undermine the durability of any more upside than that. If at all.

There's a report of a Russian comminique advising its diplomats to bring home students from abroad. Did that crystallize a concern that was causing Tuesday's undercurrent of relentless selling? The market's reaction suggests as much, already having bounced off its 2121.75 low just before the headline crossed, and then extending higher in reaction. I hope we don't have to start acheter sur les canons, vendre sur les trompettes. The afternoon's bias-down did not officially trigger, although that was a very borderline signal. The late-afternoon bounce retraced it, but didn't close above it. That's not a sell signal, but it's certainly not a rejection of the session's decline. And there's no opening action Wednesday that can reject Tuesday's break -- the most bullish scenario must probe lower intraday before recovering. The most bearish setup would try recovering prematurely. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2141.25 2135.00 ...would target  2147.00  2140.75 Bias-down: under  2132.75  2126.50 ...would target 2126.50  2120.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, BOTH BIAS SIGNALS TESTED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.