Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Choppy overnight action had forecast two likelihoods for Wednesday. First was that volatility would persist. Second was that the ongoing repeated reaction from 3428.00 support would remain relevant. Already bouncing Monday night and intraday Tuesday, the overnight 3458.00 high was once again recalled to support. Multiple intraday bounces also returned to 3428.00, including the final hour's collapse from 3451.00 to 3426.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Hovering at 3428.00 up to 3434.00 suddenly collapsed to 3402.50 during a special press conference announcing foreign interference in domestic elections. Ranging sideways up to 3416.50 persisted through midnight. Much of a bounce to 3420.00 was retraced through Europe's opens, but soon a bigger bounce had fully recovered to attack 3428.00. And now its retracement has fully recovered to try probing higher. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The past two Market Wraps described the potential for neutralizing downside attractions overnight, and then already greeting the open in rally mode. This is the path that has developed overnight -- attraction met, then fully recovered -- except for the recovery not yet reversing into positive territory. That last leg in this setup is the most important for being done with the obligatory probe under 3428.00, because the open will be inclined to probe the same new territory probed overnight. And in this instance, only the overnight crowd has had the opportunity to react to an apparent new headline catalyst: election interference. Move over, stimulus and Fed speaker headlines. Last night's reaction to the press conference was likely enhanced by greeting it at the 3428.00 obligatory support, and greeting the open there will be similarly vulnerable to repeating the break. As for the low, more important than touching the 3401.50 objective was that its test be rejected quickly, which it was. Multiple session opens and closes clustered in the 3434.00-3435.00 area also define last night's earlier Globex high. Recovering it through the open after having probed yesterday's lows overnight could form a bullish Isolation and/or Globex-flip setup. Otherwise, the pattern remains vulnerable to retesting 3416.50 and potentially 3401.50. And one or the other of these lower attractions must be rejected as quickly to be only an obligatory break under 3428.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3433.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3427.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3425.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3411.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3416.50 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Collapsing to the bias-down target. The 3402.50 overnight low was recovered back up to 3428.00 well before the open, but greeted the open still hovering there. Opening under the 3434.00 earlier Globex low had required that any bullish scenario be immediately productive. But being immediately productive wasn't the only bullish requirement. Surging through 3434.00 shows an attempt to recover it. But the first 15 minutes only ranged around it. Even giving the Globex-flip a benefit of the doubt would require higher highs at 10:00. Otherwise, the setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish. And the opening range's high was never exceeded. The 3427.00 bias-down signal was finally probed by 10:30 to invalidate the no-bias that had triggered at 10:15. A retest of the 3416.50 and potentially 3401.50 was the likely alternative. Follow-through down to 3407.00 is reacting up sharply to attack 3425.00. A bullish setup at the low bar allowed identifying the reversal's buy signal 2 minutes later. And now that organic reversal has had its oxygen sucked away by the artificial catalyst of a favorable stimulus headline. The reaction has recovered to 3428.00, now being tested as resistance instead of as support. Entering the noon hour above 3428.00 would start to suggest the intraday obligatory probe under it is complete. A more substantial recovery could develop. Otherwise, still not recovering 3428.00 would keep alive a retest of oversold RSIs at this morning's low.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3433.00 signal would target 3443.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3417.75 signal would target 3403.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3441.00 3433.00 ...would target 3451.00 3443.00 Bias-down: under 3425.75 3417.75 ...would target 3411.00 3403.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

More important, obligatory lows may be done. This morning's test of 3407.00 was recovered to test 3435.00, defining the bias environment's range. A pullback into the noon hour prevented recovering 3428.00 in time to signal its obligatory probes were done. But the signal's second opportunity took the pullback's recovery to higher highs at 3444.00. Recovering 3428.00 Earlier would have been more reliable, but the burden of proof is on buyers. Resistance at this afternoon's 3443.00 bias-up target prevented renewing the bias-up signal. This is still a bias-up environment, so extending the recovery would be entirely credible. And extending the recovery at any time could become very aggressive and productive -- without a headline catalyst. Otherwise, closing under 3428.00 would undermine the recovery, and any selling isolated below it. Simply retesting the lows wouldn't be likely to hold. The recover isn't required to extend this afternoon, but ranging sideways would remain vulnerable to another downleg.

Preparing for an obligatory probe under 3428.00 down to 3401.50 was rewarded by an overnight spike down to 3402.50. Its complete recovery into Thursday's open up to 3438.50 tested the 3434.00 earlier Globex high when holding it could have been as bearish as its recovery would have been bullish. The intraday inclination to repeat overnight trending attempts took the morning back down to 3407.00, allowing the balance of the session to trend up to 3453.00. No traction was gained for the rally's effort, only exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high, and not probing higher through any other relevant window. Thursday afternoon highs held their test of Wednesday afternoon's 3451.00 last relative high, where closing higher could have formed a position of strength to help absorb an immediate reaction down. Nothing prevents an immediate reaction down. Limiting a reaction to testing 3434.00-3435.00 as support would remain likely to extend the recovery aggressively into the weekend. Any lower through a timing window exit would start a domino effect that could turn the current pullback into a more protracted downleg. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3456.25 signal would target 3469.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3440.50 signal would target 3432.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3464.25 3456.25 ...would target 3477.00 3469.00 Bias-down: under 3448.50 3440.50 ...would target 3440.75 3432.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE