Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 11-11-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday afternoon's reaction down from 2175.50 stopped short of Its minimum objective to probe under 2160.00, and only attacked 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. No bounce developed, and the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Wednesday's late-afternoon ~2168.00 high. That was under the morning's 2178.50 high, which had stopped short of the 2180.50 overnight high. And 2180.00 had been the rally's next higher objective. Overnight action's new info... A slightly deeper dip still stopped short of 2160.00 before bouncing to 2170.50..But a drop that began with Europe's opens has extended down sharply to test this morning's 2151.75 bias-down target by 2 ticks. Its reaction is attacking 2160.00. If, then... Probing the prior day's high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Yesterday's close was AT Wednesday's high, which doesn't represent any stronger of a rally. Overnight action has dipped deeper, but remains within yesterday's range, which also qualifies as orbiting around Wednesday's high. Extending the rally still can't afford much of a delay to resuming post-open, or else a much deeper pullback will develop. This being a Friday, the morning's bias often persists through the noon hour -- and there's plenty of room below for a correction. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2154.25 would be likely to trigger the 2157.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2160.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Ranging and ranging and ranging around the gap down finally breaks. The bias timing window through 10:15 ranged choppily around the opening print. The bias-down target was triggered grudgingly, and it was met barely. That late dip could have served as a rubber band to snap back up. But a bounce attacked 2157.50 and is now reacting down sharply to attack 2151.00. It was a late bias-down, and the same leg that invoked the grace period also attacked the 2151.75 bias-down target to within 3 ticks. It didn't require being met, but now it has been probed. The market still risks a deeper pullback since resuming the rally has been delayed. And this being a Friday, the morning's late bias-down can persist through the noon hour. Its minimum target is met, twice, so a recovery is still possible. But it wouldn't be signaled from under 2157.50.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2161.50 2158.25 ...would target  2167.25 2164.25 Bias-down: under  2152.50  2149.50 ...would target 2147.00  2143.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Friday's session didn't accomplish much. It was more lightly-attended being the Veteran's Day holiday, and a Friday. Limited sponsorship led to an Inside Day, despite beginning with a gap down. It's still only "ineffectual pessimism," which tends to be bullish, but has yet to be exploited. Nothing was changed by Friday's price action. Wednesday night's test of the 2180.00 objective may stand, but it's still likely to be tested intraday. And it's still likely to hold that test, with or without probing it up to 2185.00-2186.00. We'll discuss that setup and others, and closely examine how Tuesday night's plunge affects the bigger picture, during this weekend's Saturday Review. I'll email a reminder and link overnight. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2168.50 2165.50 ...would target  2175.00  2172.00 Bias-down: under  2156.50  2153.50 ...would target  2151.00  2148.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.