Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Overnight highs had peaked at the 3574.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of Monday's last half-hour collapse. Reacting down through the open bounced off of 3552.00 to recovery fully into the noon hour. Intraday buyers didn't accomplish anything that wasn't already accomplished overnight. Momentarily blipping-up to a fresh high at 3577.00 was quickly reversed down to 3552.00 through the afternoon bias environment. The last half-hour bounced up to 3574.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The picture pre-midnight and post-midnight were almost polar opposites of each other. And now that picture may be changing again. A relentless 38-point drop had probed under yesterday's lows to 3538.00, and then reversed up to probe 2-3 points above the cash session close at 3569.50. Now its reaction just probed back under yesterday's lows at 3547.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The overnight dip's recovery had suggested that yesterday's session, spent entirely in positive territory after gapping up, did create somewhat of a position of strength. But not gapping up today remains likelier to repeating the overnight dip(s), probably deeper. So, same drill for today as for yesterday: Gapping up above 3577.00 could try to retrace Monday's highs, but opening weakness probably extends to retest Tuesday's 3523.00 and 3506.50 oversold RSIs, possibly down to 3388.00-3492.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3566.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3561.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3557.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3542.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3551.25 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

But not exactly acting like it. Overnight lows were recovered up to 3569.50 before collapsing again to 3544.50. The 3557.00 open found sellers, too -- a couple of times down to 3547.00. The 3561.00 bias-down signal triggered late. But two bounces are probing the opening range's upper-end up to 3564.50. Bias-down says these intermittent surges sporadically probing above the bias-down signal are distribution. Bias-down also says the 3551.25 bias-down target will be retested. The pattern says it will be probed down to 3540.75 on the way to 3523.00 and lower. And back under 3560.00 would say that downleg is underway. Not gapping up already dismissed this morning from rallying. And that made the alternative much likelier for today to behave bearishly. Just ranging in negative territory would fulfill that likelihood, and meanwhile the vulnerability remains for lower lows.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3560.25 signal would target 3571.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3543.50 signal would target 3527.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3564.75 3560.25 ...would target 3575.50 3571.00 Bias-down: under 3547.00 3543.50 ...would target 3531.75 3527.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Compensated for the delay. Not already gapping up today was likelier to retrace one or both of Tuesday's oversold RSIs at 3523.00 and 3506.50. And just testing the latter would have potential down to 3488.00-3492.00. This morning's late bias-down wasn't quickly exploited. Backing-and-filling up to 3565.00 finally started trending down as the bias environment began lapsing. And the likelihood to compensate for the delay was finally fulfilled during the noon hour, which collapsed from 3557.00 down to 3525.50.

Even lower into the bias environment at 3520.00 is renewing the 3543.50 bias-down signal under its 3527.25 bias-down target. Not bullish.

But fresh lows are also neutralizing Tuesday's 3523.00 oversold RSIs. While RSIs diverge positively. A corrective bounce is already attacking 3530.00. Back under 3523.00 could be resuming the decline, next targeting 3515.50 and 3506.50 or lower.

Unless already gapping up above Wednesday's highs to at least 3577.00, Thursday was more vulnerable to retracing oversold RSIs outstanding from Tuesday at 3523.00 and 3506.50. Morning bias parameters signaled as much, but then spent most of its window sporadically probing back above its 3561.00 bias-down signal. Already having resolved down, the noon hour collapsed to 3523.00. Flat-to-lower ranging through the afternoon got to 3513.00, where a late bounce surged through the close up to 3544.00. 1-minute RSIs repeatedly teased at oversold throughout the afternoon. Typically, durable lows will include some oversold condition. Meanwhile, bounces are likely only refueling sellers for the ultimate break lower, for however deep and for however long. Thursday's late surge got to 3533.00 at the cash session close before extending 11 points higher. The leg's origin labels it as weak-handed sponsorship, and the post-close extension only more so. The bounce peaked abruptly at the afternoon's 3543.50 bias-down signal's resistance. This is often a recipe for disaster: expending so much weak-handed buying pressure when it can't gain traction for its effort, while holding resistance. Gapping up Friday above Thursday morning's 3565.00 highs would be credible for trending up intraday. And probably by a lot, as Friday Factors exacerbate the renewed strong-handed buying pressure. Meanwhile, retracing Tuesday's 3506.50 oversold RSI down to 3488.00-3492.00 would be in-play if Friday's open is at all bearish. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3546.25 signal would target 3559.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3520.00 signal would target 3503.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3550.50 3546.25 ...would target 3563.50 3559.25 Bias-down: under 3524.25 3520.00 ...would target 3507.25 3503.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE