Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night already gapped up and extended to a 37-point gain at 3618.00 before Moderna's vaccine headline triggered surges up to 3637.00. Which Monday's open mostly retraced down to 3597.00 before recovering up to 3623.00. That was also retraced to 3597.00 before recovering back up through 3623.00 by 6-7 points through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Three steps forward, two steps back. Monday's late surge extended up to 3631.00 before the Globex open. Then it was retraced entirely through midnight, back down to its 3603.00 origin. Bouncing to 3616.50 into Europe's opens has been retraced entirely again, back down to 3602.00. . If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Dipping back down to Monday's intraday lows is still in the orbit of last Monday's unfinished business at 3640.50 and 3668.00. But attacking Monday's lows at the open would open the door to at least an intraday dip back into Friday's lower range. Any shallower opening weakness could still retest oversold RSIs at Monday morning's low, but probably not collapse. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3608.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3610.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3617.75 would be likely also to trigger the 3622.25 bias-down signal.

Triggering a session-long decline. The 3602.00-3603.00 overnight lows were already breaking lower before the open. Having trended up into yesterday's close, gapping down to and through yesterday's 3597.00 low would form a session-long decline setup. And the open was exited under 3597.00.

Whatever else might be triggered, just retesting yesterday's lows was likely to fill the gap back down to Friday's 3582.00 close -- probably down to 3577.00.

Also triggering the session-long decline expects all but one timing window to probe its prior window's low.

Already, Friday's gap has been attacked down to 3584.25. That pierces the structure containing the gap, but stops short of filling it. Its natural support has reacted up to attack the 3600.75 opening print. The reaction up is also testing a buy signal at 3599.00. If productive, the session-long decline could be invalidated. Otherwise, back under 3595.50 would reinstate the decline.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3616.50 signal would target 3625.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3603.00 signal would target 3592.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3620.50 3616.50 ...would target 3629.25 3625.25 Bias-down: under 3607.75 3603.00 ...would target 3596.00 3592.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Session-long decline setup. The morning bias environment didn't probe under the open's 3584.25 low, and the noon hour didn't probe under the bias environment's 3592.00 low. Two consecutive timing windows invalidated the session-long decline setup, which allows only one exception. This doesn't prevent reversing down. The first 15 minutes trended down and wasn't rejected, keeping the door open to being retraced. Also, a lot of resistance is being tested at the 3616.50 gap-to-gap (which is also the bias-up signal), and last Monday's 3618.50 mid-day pivotal high. Room for noise can be tested to either 3603.00-3615.50 bias signal during the no-bias window. Probing beyond them would be no-bias trending that requires retrace. Otherwise, breaking either signal when the bias window is lapsing can extend sharply in that direction. If sellers aren't yet retaking control, then almost any strength then would be target at least yesterday's 3631.00 pre-open high, on the way to last Monday's highs.

Monday's late surge up to 3631.00 was only retraced overnight. Gapping down Tuesday to the 3597.00 afternoon low formed a session-long decline setup that only extended to 3584.25. The bearish setup, and the first 15 minutes downtrending, didn't prevent reversing back up through the afternoon bias environment to 3620.00. Its collapse to 3598.00 reacted up to 3610.00 through the close. Tuesday's opening break already reacted overnight to the 3593.00 Fri-Mon gap-to-gap retracement. Retesting it through the open was likely to fill the actual gap back down to Friday's 3582.00 close. But it was only attacked to within 2 points. It's still the likely objective, including 3577.00, whether tested overnight or by renewed selling Wednesday. Expiration's mechanics may be skewing the pattern's timing, but its bullish features still suggest resolving up. For all of its persistent selling pressure -- gapping down, trading exclusively negative, probing the prior session, closing negative -- Tuesday was ineffectual pessimism. This tends to resolve bullishly. Tuesday was also a second consecutive session to develop almost exclusively within last Monday's midday swing, i.e. back into the orbit of Monday's unfinished business above. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3616.50 signal would target 3628.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3585.00 signal would target 3597.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3620.50 3616.50 ...would target 3632.50 3628.50 Bias-down: under 3600.75 3597.00 ...would target 3588.75 3585.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE