Bias-up tested, held. Having touched both bias signals overnight, this morning was likely to retest one -- whether, or not, actually triggering its bias. So, being precluded from signaling inertia, consolidating around the 2601.75 open wasn't likely to hold still. And it didn't. Surging before the opening 15 minutes lapsed was extended to a new high at 2605.50. Its 3-point reaction down to 2602.50 avoided triggering the 2604.50 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. A test of its 2596.50 bias-down signal is in-play. That's also last night's low, for which there's no bullish reason to retest.

Meanwhile, contrary signals are in-play. The bias parameter's downside attraction may have to wait in line for a buy signal above 2603.25 that the open had triggered. Its pullback limit isn't yet violated, despite having been probed 30 minutes earlier.

It's too late to invalidate the no-bias by 10:30. Fresh highs would be "no-bias trending," and doomed to failure. At least, required to retrace the 2604.50 bias-up signal. But back under 2602.25 would be entirely credible for the no-bias signal's downside being fulfilled.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2606.00 2605.00 ...would target  2610.75  2610.00 Bias-down: under  2598.25  2597.50 ...would target  2593.00  2592.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rally effort still failed, not rejected. This morning's bias environment was well-defined by resistance at its 2604.50 bias-up signal. An offsetting test of its 2596.50 bias-down signal was put into play. A late-morning slide down to 2597.75 stopped short of the objective, and its reaction is testing 2602.00. The slide did not stop short enough to be considered "ineffectual optimism." That would be bearish from a contrarian perspective. Eventually fulfilling the objective could still hold. But the objective should still be attacked, and much more delay would start to resemble ineffectual optimism anyway. Meanwhile, the noon hour's bounce might extend higher this afternoon. But any reliable extension would need to exceed 2603.75 first.

After Friday's close I noted the potential downside of a misstep to the rally at these levels and at this time. What's a misstep? Monday's opening surge probed a new high, and didn't maintain it. Like that. Sellers exploited the misstep by collapsing 6-1/2 points down to 2597.75. They could have exploited more, and didn't. That only attacked the overnight low. And an offsetting test of the morning's 2596.50 bias-down signal (at the overnight low) was outstanding. Not trending down deeper didn't react up by very much. A very narrow 6-tick range developed around the 2601.75 open since exiting the noon hour. The week was entered without there being any "unfinished business." Now there is, and it is below the market. Its test could be neutralized overnight, which may be the only way to retest Sunday night's low without triggering a top. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2606.00 2605.00 ...would target  2610.75  2610.00 Bias-down: under  2598.25  2597.50 ...would target 2593.00  2592.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.