Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 12-16-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday was greeted by the prior afternoon's slide from 2273.00 to 2243.00. Prior lows had held through the close, and attractions above were outstanding. A credible recovery would have rallied almost immediately, but Thursday morning's rally to 2267.75 -- though sizable -- began too late. It was retraced to within a couple of points of its 2251.00-2252.00 open, with the close bouncing back up to 2260.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the 2252.75 low. Overnight action's new info... Another choppy night of sideways action almost greeted this morning's open. But a rally is already being attempted from the 2256.50 overnight low, and it is now in positive territory attacking 2264.00. If, then... Quadruple witch expiration has some unique nuances, but today is mostly influenced by Friday Factors. Like the morning's bias tending to persist through the noon hour. Maintaining a gap up would be bullish. But oversold RSIs below still require a retest. And the bullish WedEX influence doesn't begin until coming out of the noon hour. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2265.50 would be likely to trigger the 2264.00 bias-up signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open under 2261.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open rally is retraced. Already trying to rally overnight, this morning's 2264.00 bias-up signal was touched before the open. But not after the open. It certainly didn't trigger, but neither was its test rejected. That would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2255.00 bias-down signal. Sliding just a little has tested 2257.25. Or is still testing 2257.25. It hasn't actually been rejected, although back above 2260.25 and 2261.50 would be likely also to test 2264.00. Meanwhile, any fresh low would likely test 2255.00, and possibly also probe under it, despite this being a no-bias environment. None of which has anything to do with the bullish WedEX influence likely to arrive after the noon hour. Nothing, other than this morning being an appropriate window to expend selling pressure that clears the way for upside into and out of the weekend.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2266.00 2261.00 ...would target  2271.00  2266.00 Bias-down: under  2259.25  2254.25 ...would target  2254.00  2249.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Selling persists as long as possible. There was a greater vulnerability to probing lower this morning, despite it being a no-bias environment. And perhaps because of being a no-bias environment, its 2255.00 bias-down signal defined the window's lower-end. Mostly. 2255.00 didn't break until after coming to within view of the bias environment lapsing at 11:30. Touching support at 2252.00 reacted up to attack 2259.00 at noon. Trending back down through the noon hour fell to 2249.50 just before triggering bias-down. Its 2249.00 bias-down target need not be met any closer than the 2-3 ticks already attacking it. Now the bullish WedEX influence should begin to dominate price action. The nearest buy signal is 2252.75 which is being tested now. The balance of the afternoon could retest the low -- despite only 3-minute RSI being oversold at the low so it doesn't require a retest -- so long as any fresh low or pullback resolves up to a fresh high.

Only one piece of "unfinished business below" is outstanding at Wednesday's 1243.00 low. Thursday's oversold RSIs at 1255.00 is retested. In fact, that's where Friday closed. And there has yet to be any consequence to Thursday's failed rally originating after buyers had failed to gain traction Wednesday afternoon. The bullish WedEX was influential in two ways Friday, if it was influential at all. Neither way was overt. Its first influence is inferred from the morning-long relentless decline ending suddenly almost exactly when the afternoon bias environment began. Secondly, the close ended by bouncing to a fresh afternoon high. This suggests a specific behavior on Monday morning. Friday afternoon's bullish WedEX influence might have been more obvious if not for the president's simultaneous press conference. Previous similar coincidences have also inhibited trending. But that doesn't change the setup's likely behavior Monday morning. We'll discuss these inputs and likely resolutions for setups Sunday night and Monday morning, at this weekend's Saturday Review. Look for a reminder and login link overnight. Meanwhile, the post-market Wrap recording is here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2265.25 2260.25 ...would target  2272.00  2267.25 Bias-down: under  2256.00  2251.25 ...would target  2251.00  2246.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.