Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday night's plunge in reaction to the US air strike had probed under 3214.50 support, which previously had defined Tuesday's low. Recovering pre-open to 3232.00 helped the post-open dip avoid touching 3219.00, where a much deeper drop would have been triggered. Bouncing into the noon hour peaked at 3246.00, which is natural resistance for being Thursday's open. Its resistance held as the balance of the session ranged choppily back down to 3233.00-3234.00, which previously had been attacked at Thursday's low. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Weekend rhetoric and attacks triggered another flight to quality, driving Gold up $30 and Crude Oil back up to and through Friday's highs. S&Ps gapped down Sunday night, testing Friday's open down to 3216.25. Its consolidation eventually probed higher to 3230.00 by midnight, holding the 3227.75 gap-to-gap resistance. Europe's opens triggered another downleg that attacked Thursday night's low to within 2 points at 3208.75 before bouncing to now attack 3220.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Today may reveal the true resolve of the rally, if not also the Fed. Last Friday's opening thrust down stopped optimistically short of testing a relevant level, so its post-open bounce wasn't strong-handed sponsorship. Today's open is currently indicated to try again. Triggering Friday's 3219.00 sell signal would have extended the decline to 3175.00-3180.00. Today that signal is 3214.50, and recovering its test through the open could launch a more substantial rally. Meanwhile, note that the rally's trend change signal is raised considerably to 3214.50-3223.00, which would be triggered at the close, and there's no "unfinished business" above. It's not too early for this Friday's Employment Situation report to be discussed, but too early for that discussion to influence price action. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 Under 3220.75 would be likely also to be under the 3224.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3227.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3230.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3235.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

But big support tests held. Market Tour described the most bullish scenario being to recover a test of 3214.50 back above 3219.00 through the open. Just holding at test of 3219.00 through Friday's open would have launched a bigger recovery, so this would be a second chance. Chance taken. The 3214.50 opening print was pierced by only 3 ticks before immediately recovering 2119.00. Consolidation at the 3226.75 gap-to-gap 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement has resolved up. Overnight highs are were retested up to 3231.25. That also tests the 3230.50 bias-down signal, as resistance, too late to avoid triggering or to invoke the grace period. Its recovery through 10:30 would have invalidated the 10:15 signal, but this is otherwise a bias-down environment. So, 3230.50 should define the window's upper-end. A retest of the 3224.50 bias-down target is not required, and could become a deeper correction of this morning's recovery -- or the recovery's failure. Meanwhile, extending the recovery above 3232.50 would be the next chance to confirm the rally has held a more substantial test of support.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3236.50 3236.25 ...would target 3243.25 3243.00 Bias-down: under 3227.25 3227.25 ...would target 3221.50 3221.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Standing still is to fall behind. Today's recovery attempt is pretty much an either/or proposition. Not extending it up had become vulnerable to reversing it back down. The open's 3214.50/3219.00 long-entry setup is already well-rewarded, but only now probing positive territory. Just closing above 3219.00 should help to define the pullback's low. And 3219.00's test becomes likely if the recovery isn't extending. Probing above this morning's 3230.50 bias-down signal during the bias-down environment already requires being retraced. That could include a visit to the 10:15 3227.75 print, too. Neither of which is required to hold as support if tested. Extending higher anyway would leave at least a retracement to 3230.50 outstanding as "unfinished business." And it can be unfinished business while the recovery tries extending. Meanwhile, the 3243.00 bias-up target is in-play, with potential for extending up to 3250.50.

Sunday night's gap down and lower lows had attacked Friday's pre-open lows to within 2 points at 3209.00. Monday's pre-open Market Tour described the most predictive scenario as either breaking under 3214.50 through a relevant timing window, or else rejecting its post-open test back above 3219.00. The resolution was instantaneous as the open pierced 3 ticks under 3214.50 and immediately reacted back up above 3219.00. Sellers were weak-handed. No pullback was violated by any consolidation as the recovery extended higher intraday. The rally did not gain traction, only exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high, but not probing any higher until the last half-hour. Its surge up to 3249.50 reacted down 7 points into the futures close. Monday's 3246.50 cash session close was still overlapping Friday's high, so the next higher reward was not put into play. No hold-long was compelling. Resuming the rally Tuesday without delay requires gapping up, and gapping down Tuesday would be vulnerable to extending down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Thursday's bounce had lost sponsorship, opening the door for correcting down to 3456.00. Its deep dip defined the overnight low. Reversing up sharply to 3519.00 through the Employment Situation report. Dipping deeply through Friday's open slid to 3476.50, recovering gradually to test 3509.00 into the noon hour and through the afternoon bias environment. The final 60-90 minutes wide 3492.00-3416.00 swing settled back at 3509.00 into the weekend. Two consecutive overlapping sessions makes a multi-session range. Appearing suddenly after four consecutive gaps up and positive closes is in need of reinforcements. And reinforcements may have only one higher reward before a deeper pullback must develop. Alternatively, a deeper pullback than Thursday night's low can develop first. We'll discuss the likelier paths and their levels at this weekend's Saturday Review, along with next week's scheduled influences. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3252.00 3251.75 ...would target 3258.25 3258.00 Bias-down: under 3239.75 3239.75 ...would target 3231.00 3231.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.