VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Market Pre-Open Plan - 7:38 AM
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Previously : Tue's last upleg quickly extended to hover at 3947 through midnight. A pullback rallied out of Europe's opens, but last-minute pre-open optimism signaled the end of upside momentum. The first hour's Symmetrical Triangle corrected to 3949 to resume the rally, which extended through Wed's close to 3991.
Overnight price points : Choppy sideways ranging fluctuating around unchanged and between the bias signals is now bouncing again off the 3985 low, back to the range's 3996 upper-end.
Catalysts : CPI, LOGI (Techs) warning, BTC crossroads, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : Pre-CPI optimism, BTC back to recent highs, 3-Day weekend.
Their influences :
- Too late for overnight optimism to have signaled a likely favorable CPI headline reaction.
- Bitcoin surged again overnight, back to multi-month highs that intersect with downtrending resistance.
- Impending holiday illiquidity tends to exacerbate knee-jerk reactions.
Premise : Pre-CPI optimism hasn't trended further overnight, so a favorable reaction isn't any likelier, but maintaining a favorable reaction through the open can still be reliable for extending higher intraday. Exiting a timing window above the next higher 4008 attraction would open the door to objectives above 4100, but more importantly help to confirm the past week's rally is not just a false break from the prior multi-week range.
Alternative : Planner's crypto segment tied its current performance to the currently extended risk-on behaviors and the crossroads they have reached, beginning with LOGI's earnings miss. A negative reaction to CPI has room down to 3935 if not also to 3927 before becoming more than just a corrective dip. Even an initially favorable reaction would be vulnerable to reversing down from above 4000.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 3989, 4008… DOWN: 3848-53, 3920, 3874.
Stock Market Opening Signals - 10:59 AM
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Previously : Choppy sideways ranging fluctuating around 3990 unchanged and between the bias signals is now bouncing again off the 3985 low, back to the range's 3996 upper-end.
New price points : CPI was greeted at 4008 resistance, where a blip-up to 4020 snapped back down to 3954... and back up to 4008. Consolidating around 3990 unchanged was recovered back up to 4021, which also reversed down through Thu's open to 3957, and once again returned to fluctuate around unchanged.
Catalysts : CPI, LOGI (Techs) warning, BTC crossroads, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWNS... Pre-CPI optimism, BTC back to recent highs, 3-Day weekend.
Their influences :
- Flat overnight range's eventual breakout was too late to signal a likely favorable CPI headline reaction.
- Bitcoin's overnight surge to multi-month resistance and downtrending resistance pushed "risk-on" back.
- Impending holiday illiquidity not only exacerbating knee-jerk reactions, but also inhibiting trending away from unchanged.
Triggers/Tactics : Recovering through the open from a negative CPI headline reaction would have been the most bullish possible setup. But the reaction's recovery was itself being rejected through the open instead. That's not necessarily bearish, but the fluctuation is also constantly retracing unchanged, which suggests that momentum has lapsed -- and that undermines the prevailing uptrend. Pre-3-day weekend illiquidity also undermines trending, which has helped to anticipate post-open reversals. But that reliability will begin to diminish as the morning window lapses. Meanwhile, this leg's highest attraction to 4008 is tested and retested, opening the door to a multi-session correction back down.
Alternative : Exiting a timing window above 4008 would open the door to a new series of attractions and objectives above 4100, but more importantly help to confirm the past week's rally is not just a false break from the prior multi-week range.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4008… DOWN: 3948-53, 3920, 3874.
Tonight's Day Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4004, targeting 4018.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3984, targeting 3971.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Help - Mid-Day - 2:05 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Choppy sideways ranging fluctuating around Wed's 3990 close broke higher in time to greet CPI at 4008 resistance, where a blip-up to 4020 snapped back down to 3954. Recovering it all to 4021 pre-open was also reversed down through Thu's open to 3957, and once again recovered to fluctuate around unchanged.
New price points : Rallying away from 3990 unchanged into the noon hour was extended to the 4018 bias-up target. Bias-up was rejected through 1:30 by a collapse that extended down to 3989, but its 4018 target is being retested now.
Catalysts : CPI, LOGI (Techs) warning, BTC higher, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TARGET MET... BTC still probing higher, 3-Day weekend.
Their influences :
- Bitcoin's overnight surge to multi-month resistance has surged higher again.
- Impending holiday illiquidity not only exacerbating knee-jerk reactions, but also inhibiting trending away from unchanged.
Triggers/Tactics : The latest retrace back to 3990 unchanged came from the lengthiest trend away from it. Its 29-point collapse was the second largest intraday. And it is already recovered entirely. The bearish scenario continues to depend on there being disappointment not only with a failure to extend beyond overnight highs, but also with constantly returning to unchanged. That will need to be obvious coming out of the bias window if it is going to be influential. And it will have become obvious if another downleg extends below unchanged.
Alternative : Exiting a timing window above 4008 would open the door to a new series of attractions and objectives above 4100, but more importantly help to confirm the past week's rally is not just a false break from the prior multi-week range.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4008… DOWN: 3948-53, 3920, 3874.
Bias Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Choppy sideways ranging fluctuating around Wed's 3990 close broke higher in time to greet CPI at 4008 resistance, where a blip-up to 4020 snapped back down to 3954. Recovering it all to 4021 pre-open was also reversed down through Thu's open to 3957. Fluctuating around unchanged through the afternoon was twice resisted by the P.M. 4018 bias-up target.
Catalysts : Targets met, BTC higher, Earnings begin (banks), Consumer Sentiment, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors.
Their influences : Friday morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Often, a PM Drift setup also forms.
Premise : The market's most bullish feature is that it didn't reverse down Thu. Fluctuating narrowly overnight around Wed's close and fluctuating widely intraday around Wed's close -- i.e. multiple reversals back through 3990 through every timing window -- reflect a trend that has lost momentum. Perhaps also somewhat inhibited ahead of Fri's earnings season kick-off. Combined with having held multiple tests of the highest 4008 objective, extending the rally without delay all but requires gapping up and extending higher into the weekend, exploiting the 3-day weekend's impending illiquidity.
Alternative : The rally's most recent sessions already utilized lower prior highs to launch fresh uplegs, so almost any attack on Thu's intraday lows under 3980 could discover an air pocket that quickly collapses to defend much lower levels.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4008, 4025… DOWN: 3966, 3948-53, 3920, 3874.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4011, targeting 4025.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3991, targeting 3974.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.