Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) After dropping 19 points Monday night to attack 3307.00, Tuesday morning's 3322.75 bias-down signal was ignored despite triggering cleanly. Rallying above it up to 3329.75 during the bias-down environment had required being retraced. Its retracement was fulfilled by a drop triggered by a coronavirus headline. The drop's low also fulfilled the morning's 3316.25 bias-down target that had been attacked earlier to within 1 point. The headline's reaction was at least corrected by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to attack 3326.00, before one last dip into the close attacked 3318.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Di by the coronavirus headline, live by the coronavirus headline? Tuesday afternoon's headline reaction had consolidated through the close, but began recovering soon after the Globex open. The earlier 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement attacking 3326.00 was chipped away, suddenly helped by a 10-12 point surge to new highs at 3336.00. Its catalyst seems to have been a favorable coronavirus headline. And it doesn't seem to be an anomaly, having hovered at its highs through midnight. Dipping through Europe's opens has now retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the surge down to 3330.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Is today the day that satisfies the new high close required by two of last week's setups? Despite last night's surge to new highs, we'll keep monitoring for a repeat of this week's warning shots across the bow. They suggest the rally has entered a stage of briefer and shallower surges, launching from shakier ground. Meanwhile, there was sufficient backing-and-filling (in both directions) for the next rally attempt (or drop) to be credible for extending. So a new high close today gets a benefit of the doubt in the absence of a productive sell signal. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3333.50 would be likely also to exceed the 3331.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3327.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3324.75 bias-up signal.

Holding new highs. The session has started out with an opening thrust setup. Containing an opening thrust through a relevant window tends to identify weak hands. Not only weak hands, but excessive pessimism. And that's bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Last night's 3336.50 new Globex trend extreme had reacted down much earlier. But a pre-open recovery retraced it up to 3335.00. A negative coronavirus headline just before the 3330.50 open triggered an opening thrust down. Barely piercing the first of two likely pullback limits at 3328.50 was quickly reversed back up to the pre-open high at 3335.50.

1-minute RSI diverged negatively while a Double Top was forming, and its reaction down into the pattern's 3330.75-3331.75 sweet spot quickly bounced. Now fresh highs have touched 3336.00. But not last night's 3336.50 new Globex trend extreme, which requires intraday retest. Often the same day. And it's not necessarily resistance, but the 3337.75 renewed bias-up target would be likely if overnight highs are retested.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3331.50 3331.25 ...would target 3338.25 3338.00 Bias-down: under 3325.50 3325.25 ...would target 3318.25 3318.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Choppily flat. The reversal from the open's thrust had narrowly avoided renewing the bias-up signal. Its 3331.25 bias-up target was touched at 10:15 instead of exceeded. It was still a bias-up environment, and another upleg recovered to within 1 tick of the 3337.75 renewed bias-up target. 3-minute RSI never got overbought, and the obvious response made it likely the rally was done. It proved to be more so, as the reaction down extended to ultimately attack 3324.00.

Now bouncing out of the noon hour has touched this afternoon's 3331.25 bias-up signal. Holding it has triggered no-bias, so the signal should restrain the next hour's upper-end.

Bouncing higher anyway would be no-bias trending, requiring a complete retracement. Waiting for the bias environment to lapse could be more productive. Otherwise, back under 3328.50 would trigger another downleg. No matter how deep, it fresh lows can't signal the trend reversing down -- not on the same day as new highs.

Tuesday night's rally to its 3335.50 new high was a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. Wednesday morning's 3337.50 high retested it after the open's blip-down to 3328.00. The high also met the morning's renewed bias-up target to within 1 tick. The current rally leg has included quite a few upside attractions that were neutralized not long after forming. Only last week's breakout and Friday trend extreme still require a higher close. Wednesday was postured well to fulfill the new trend high close. But trending down from the morning's 3337.50 high extended down to 3319.25. The 3321.50 cash session close was unchanged from Tuesday. That only undermines upside momentum when the session includes a new trend extreme. But Wednesday's close was not under a prior low. Lacking that same feature last Tuesday is what prevented its Pivot Reversal setup from actually reversing momentum down. Nevertheless, both sessions reflect the trend's increasingly weak-handed sponsorship. As does quickly neutralizing upside attractions. A deeper pullback remains possible, again capable of recovering from 3308.00-3311.00 or else targeting 3295.00-3298.00. A fresh high close and the rally's next higher close at 3355.00 remain outstanding. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3327.50 3327.25 ...would target 3333.75 3333.50 Bias-down: under 3318.25 3318.00 ...would target 3311.25 3311.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.