Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying overnight from Wednesday's 3333.50-3335.50 close met the rally's next higher objective at 3355.00. The 3357.75 overnight high formed a "new Globex trend extreme." Reacting down before Thursday's open still gapped up to 3344.00. The open collapsed to 3333.00, and its recovery collapsed to 3334.00, all during the first hour, and all essentially maintaining positive territory. Predictably the balance of the session only hovered around the open through Thursday afternoon, perhaps paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. The session ended right back at its 3344.00 open. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Firming out of Thursday's close extended higher into the Globex open up to 3350.00. A brief consolidation soon collapsed down to 3336.25, where choppy ranging eventually surged to 3347.50. Another brief consolidation collapsed again, initially only back down to the surge's origin, but eventually sliding sharply lower to 3327.50. Its reaction is now probing yesterday's opening lows up to 3337.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday spent a lot of time absorbing selling pressure, and still developed exclusively in positive territory. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts, suggesting their sponsorship is weak-handed, but buyers never exploited their defense of positive territory. Immediately breaking higher Friday would require gapping up above 3346.50 Thursday afternoon's 3346.50 highs. A favorable reaction to the Employment Situation report could produce that, or at least recover the overnight dip back into yesterday's range. The overnight dip tested support at Wednesday's 3327.00-3328.00 "lower prior highs," and failing to hold 3325.25 would next target 3308.00-3311.00. Already having met the rally's 3355.00 objective Wednesday night has opened the door to this reaction down becoming a deeper pullback, regardless of Wednesday night's outstanding "new Globex trend extreme." First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) There are no preliminary indications ahead of the Employment Situation report.

Not yet rejecting the opening thrust. The knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report spiked up to 3345.00, holding resistance at yesterday's 3344.00 open and close. Reacting down to 3330.00 extended lower through the open, probing 3325.25 by 1 point. 3327.00-3328.00 was still being overlapped and not rejected at 9:45, but 3325.25 has held as support. Holding under the 3333.00 bias-down target through 10:15 renewed the bias-down signal. This is a bias-down environment, likely to retest 3327.00-3328.00.

It's too late to invalidate the bias-down environment by recovering its 3340.00 bias-down signal at 10:30. Invalidating it now requires recovering its 3350.50 bias-up signal through 11:30-noon.

Currently, a bigger post-open bounce is testing 3336.50, with potential up to 3337.75. Regardless, entering the noon hour back under 3327.00-3328.00 would confirm the opening thrust was not rejected, and this bigger post-open bounce is weak-handed, next targeting 3308.00-3311.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3344.00 3343.00 ...would target 3350.00 3349.00 Bias-down: under 3333.75 3332.75 ...would target 3328.00 3327.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probing under the bias-down signal anyway. This morning's reaction up made more use of almost all the room available for still being only a corrective bounce. But no more. Bias-down was renewed by being under the 3333.00 bias-down target at 10:15. Dips to 3324.25 were recovered up to the 3340.00 bias-down signal. All maintaining the bias-down environment's influence. But the opening thrust had failed to recover a relevant level through a relevant timing window that might have indicated its sponsorship was absorbed. Any bounce would be coming from a weak base, and doomed to failure. Flat-to-lower ranging into the afternoon bias window had held above its 3332.75 bias-down signal through 1:20. This is a no-bias environment. That didn't prevent probing lower -- now sharply lower to fresh lows at 3322.75. This is "no-bias trending" that requires eventually retracing the 3332.75 bias-down signal (purple circle on the chart). But not necessarily today. 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are simultaneously oversold at the low. So long as no bounce limit is violated, lower lows could reach 3308.00-3311.00. Violating a bounce limit without quickly extending higher would still be vulnerable to resuming this afternoon's decline, and delaying the 3332.75 retracement until next week.

Initially blipping-up 4-5 points from Thursday's 3344.50 cash session close had at least reflected the pent-up intraday buying pressure. But it came too late to absorb two separate headlines (coronavirus, European economy) that reacted down to 3327.00-3328.00 before Friday's open. The Employment Situation report's knee-jerk reaction blipped-up to 3344.50 and also reflected pent-up buying pressure. But it also came too late to reverse the trend up. Friday's opening thrust testing 3325.25 support wasn't recovered high enough soon enough to signal it was absorbed, either. The morning's bounce back up to its 3340.00 bias-down signal was doomed to failure, so the noon hour and afternoon bias window trended down to fresh lows at 3320.75. The fresh lows are also doomed to failure, at least temporarily -- probing under the afternoon's 3332.75 bias-down signal during its no-bias window requires being retraced. So, retracing the no-bias trending under Friday afternoon's 3332.75 bias-down signal is now "unfinished business." Its test can be neutralized overnight, or delayed by extending Friday afternoon's drop next targeting 3308.00-3311.00. Retesting Wednesday night's 3357.75 "new Globex trend extreme" is also unfinished business, and also doesn't require any particular time frame. We'll game out possible paths at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3330.75 3329.75 ...would target 3338.00 3337.00 Bias-down: under 3321.50 3320.50 ...would target 3315.25 3314.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.