Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's gap up to 3366.25 immediately reacted down to form an Opening Thrust setup. Testing Monday night's 3364.75 "lower prior highs" down to 3359.25 was recovered back above the open through 9:45. Higher highs were in-play, and the recovery extended up to 3374.50. Entering the noon hour back under the 3366.25 open opened the door to the probing lower. Afternoon lows down to 3351.75 touched a prior session's range, making Tuesday's 3366.25 gap up above all prior highs "unfinished business" that requires being filled. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Trending back up since yesterday's close has come within 2 points of yesterday's 3374.50 high. bounce from yesterday's 3351.75 low initially extended up to 3362.75 into the Globex open. Its reaction down to 3355.50 formed an Ascending Triangle that broke higher, and hasn't stopped. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Other than filling the gap back up to Tuesday's 3366.25 open above all prior highs, all other "unfinished business" above is neutralized. And that would be neutralized by simply opening at or above 3366.25 which is currently indicated. Then it shouldn't be very long before seeing whether yesterday's pattern is persisting -- the failed attempt at forming a bullish gap-and-go, and the failed attempt to close above 3361.00-3362.00, both suggest to beware the overnight trending might also fail. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3366.00 would be likely to trigger the 3363.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3362.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Giving the rally a chance to regain traction. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon's 3367.75 bias environment high form a "session-long rally" setup. Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 above it would trigger the setup and be likely to extend higher through the close. Unless ITS prior high were also tested during the open. Which it was, at yesterday morning's 3374.50 high. Then that must be exceeded at 9:45 to trigger a "session-long rally." But 3374.50 was still being overlapped, despite having probed above it to 3377.00. At least 3374.50 wasn't rejected at 9:45. Then the setup would have been as bearish as it could have been bullish. Despite reacting back down to 3368.50, the 3369.75 bias-up target was exceeded at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Its renewed bias-up target is already met at the open's highs, and renewed signals don't require being tested anyway. But bias-up inhibits sellers, and its window's downside is limited to testing its 3363.75 bias-up signal as support. Back above 3374.25 (now being touched) would start to signal the pattern is resolving up. Meanwhile, the rally has failed to exploit yet another bullish setup. Two more, including the Opening Thrust holding a test of prior highs through 9:45. Back under 3369.25 would be credible for resuming the open's reaction down, needing confirmation under 3362.75.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3378.25 3377.25 ...would target 3383.25 3382.25 Bias-down: under 3371.25 3370.00 ...would target 3365.00 3363.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Cutting it kind of close. Finally, a bearish setup wasn't exploited. This morning's 3377.00 high was attacked to within 1 tick during the noon hour. Its reaction extended to the 3370.00 bias-down signal just in time to invoke the grace period. And it held. This is a late no-bias environment. Two bullish setups this morning had also formed, and also failed to trigger. That's four unexploited bullish setups in two days. None of which is itself yet a sell signal, not even all combined. But even one is unusual for this rally. Four consecutively is unprecedented. And today is sitting at highs, not trending through them. Rallying out of the bias environment to new highs would be credible for having absorbed this current hesitation. The 3391.00 objective would be in-play, and possibly a squeeze. Otherwise, closing back in negative territory under 3357.00 would more likely reverse momentum back down to at least correct the past week's rally.

Wednesday's 3372.50 gap up was 2 points under Tuesday's high, which was then probed by more than 2 points up to 3377.00. And thus began a narrow 8-point range that persisted into the final hour. The session's narrow range finally resolved during the 3:37-3:52 proxy window, piercing its 3380.50 target by 1 tick through the close. No "unfinished business" was left outstanding, either above or below. Meanwhile, Tuesday's 2 unexploited bullish setups were joined by 2 more Wednesday. No particular timing is associated with the observation, even if failing to trigger bullish setups were bearish. But neither does Wednesday's new high close -- only a slightly higher and a very late breakout -- negate the warning of bullish setups not attracting strong-handed buyers. Closing above 3361.00-3362.00 Wednesday does put into play the next higher objective at 3391.00. that's only another 10 points higher, and closing above it would next target 3451.00. Closing back under 3361.00-3362.00 Thursday would invalidate the 3391.00 target. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3383.75 3382.50 ...would target 3388.75 3387.50 Bias-down: under 3374.25 3373.75 ...would target 3366.00 3365.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.