Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 02-13-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s 10-point gap up at the morning''s 2074.00 bias-up target soon extended to pierce Wednesday''s freakish post-close surge to 2079.50. The morning''s bias environment dipped back down to 2074.00, and that was the last of that. The balance of the session trended up to fresh highs, eventually touching 2085.50. And the rally gained traction for its efforts.

Overnight action''s new info...
A shallow dip to 2081.50 was already firming into midnight, and has since extended higher to 2089.75, piercing December''s prior high by 1 point.

If, then...
The range between January''s channel and December''s high has been retraced relentlessly, already producing a new high. This continues to track the template we''ve been monitoring as the likeliest resolution. That template''s own likeliest resolution is to reverse down aggressively, too, but not until after probing the prior high.. Probing prior highs should be today. Especially considering that this morning''s bias environment should be controlled by buyers to reward them for controlling yesterday afternoon. The only potential obstacle would be created by the open''s gap up expending so much energy that it attracts more sellers than buyers -- since Friday morning''s bias tends to persist through the noon hour, and intraday counter-trend sponsorship is difficult enough to attract on a Friday afternoon, let alone before a three-day weekend. Don''t forget that this is the area that four consecutive sessions in December probed fresh highs intraday and yet failed to gain traction.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2087.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2083.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

A funny thing happened on the way to new highs...

Hours and hours of choppy pre-open ranging was centered around this morning''s 2087.50 bias-up signal. An unannounced headline threw cold water on the already cold, wet Grexit issue, triggering a quick dip to 2084.25.

So, the cash session open suddenly found itself consolidating under the bias-up signal it had been clinging to just minutes earlier.

Resolving up to a fresh high at 2090.00 held up into the 10:00 econ report, and then resolved back down to 2086.00. All of which was essentially still ranging around the 2087.50 bias-up signal.

In fact, the 15-minute grace period triggered at 10:15. But new highs were being probed into 10:30. This is a late bias-up environment, and its 2092.75 bias-up target is in-play.

Despite the preponderance of bullish setups, back under 2087.50 would make probing fresh post-open lows likely, regardless of the resolution.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2096.75
2092.75
...would target 2101.75
2098.00
Bias-down: under 2087.00
2083.25
...would target 2081.50
2077.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday''s test of the 1.1425 resistance was probed momentarily, but Friday only ranged narrowly. Not closing higher prevented confirming Thursday''s breakout, which requires extending higher without delay to avoid becoming bearish.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday''s gap up is suspicious for developing from Thursday''s "ineffectual pessimism." The close was still overlapping Thursday''s ~1227.00 high, so not extending higher immediately after the weekend would be likely to resolve down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday''s gap up extended sharply higher intraday. The 1-1/2 week old gap back to 17.40 was tested and held. This sort of surge is often exacerbated by the weekend''s impending illiquidity. That''s not necessarily bearish, but it does make it difficult to extend higher immediately.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The past several sessions'' intraday probes of fresh lows had never reacted up to fresh highs, so the decline remained intact into the weekend. New lows down to 145-24 now make 144-18''s test likely.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Friday''s gap up that extended during the morning to test 53.40 was retraced down to 52.00. Positive territory was maintained throughout, and 52.85 was still being overlapped near the close. Since the 54.00 prior highs weren''t touched first, optimism remains restrained, and the recovery''s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday''s open retested the 2.68 low of Thursday''s negative reaction to the weekly EIA. The test held, and the earlier breakout eventually resumed the breakout by rallying sharply to 2.81. A new relative high close remains in-play.

If not for this being a three-day weekend... then would a hold-long have been considered.? No. Not even a day other than Friday. The upside target was being tested when the cash session close was within 3 minutes. Exceeding it came later. If anything, a hold-short would have been interesting -- in fact, the close''s extension up has been retraced already. But this IS the weekend, and Friday''s issues can be forgotten between Mimosas during Sunday brunch.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
Friday Factors were everywhere. The morning''s bias persisted through the noon hour. Counter-trend sponsorship wasn''t durable. Afternoon trending drifted into the close. Those are the ones we discussed in the morning since they could influence intraday action.

Another one now has influence. Trends don''t end with a new extreme close on Fridays. And Friday was a new high close. So, even if the new week begins by immediately trending down -- like, reacting to news -- and even if the reversal were to persist for multiple sessions, a complete recovery would be expected.

Given that Monday is a holiday, reversing down would be interesting. Monday is the next Eurogroup meeting, and I''m not sure expectations can be downplayed any further. But this is the area of December''s highs, which also pushed back. And oversold RSIs at Friday''s 2082.75 low do require a retest at some point.

The template for a relentless recovery to new highs continues tracking. Friday could have probed sharply higher and been rejected by the close. That didn''t happen, so continually aggressive rallying remains likely -- and likely to be rejected aggressively soon thereafter.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
With no Saturday Review this weekend due to the holiday, extra time was taken during Friday''s post-close Market Wrap to review the bigger picture. Check the Activity Feed for its link soon. Have a great weekend,  Happy Valentine''s Day, and Happy President''s Day!

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2099.50
2095.75
...would target 2104.75
2101.00
Bias-down: under 2091.25
2087.50
...would target 2083.00
2079.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.