Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The three-day holiday weekend ended by gapping down from an otherwise relatively narrow extended range between 2773.00-2780.50. Tuesday's 2766.00 opening dip to Friday's last relative low reacted straight up to unchanged at Friday's 2776.00-2777.00 close. Surging again into noon probed overnight highs up to 2784.00 at noon. Higher highs into the final hour go to 2787.50 but gained no traction, and 1-minute RSI was only on the cusp of being overbought. The balance of the session dipped back down to unchanged, a second consecutive close above 2751.00/2757.00. But not decisively positive, so neither was its confirmation that new highs had been put into play. Overnight action's new info... Despite soon bouncing back up to 2782.25, fresh lows briefly attacked 2774.00 before midnight. Despite soon bouncing back up to 2780.75, more fresh lows briefly attacked 2773.00. A shallower bounce, so far, is only overlapping 2776.00-2777.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's late dip back down to 2776.00-2777.00 hasn't been rejected overnight, which I would have expected if the late dip there was from weak-handed sponsorship. Instead, still fluctuating around it overnight, digging out lower and lower lows, suggests otherwise -- that the rally which is being retraced was created by weak-handed sponsorship. But that's not yet enough to indicate its retracement is extending down, which all but requires gapping down or at least immediately extending to exit a timing window back under Tuesday morning's 2766.00 low. Rallying out of the open would mean the rally's next higher objective will have been established, albeit vulnerable to backing-and-filling first more gradually, from a position of strength likely to be recovered. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.00 would be likely to trigger the 2768.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2776.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Little effort expended during narrow, encompassed opening range. The relatively narrow overnight range was more noise than it was a pattern. A downtrending resistance of its highs was probed at 2779.00 just before the open, but no inflection developed. The opening 15 minutes of volatility only fluctuated narrowly between 2779.00-2781.50. A blip-down to 2777.75 has reacted back up choppily to end the first hour attacking 2784.50. Still, neither bias signal was touched, not even attacked. So, neither bias signal requires being tested. Perhaps the 2786.00 bias-up signal will be met, or attacked. That would be in-line with the 3-4 point trending attempts that I warned in the chaRTroom not to expect more of -- if even relying on that much. Stretching the rubber band upward this morning might allow a more substantial snap back down, albeit still no likelier to leave yesterday's range. Breaking higher would target a retest of yesterday's 2787.50 high.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2787.75 2787.50 ...would target 2793.75 2793.50 Bias-down: under 2775.00 2775.00 ...would target 2769.00 2769.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

FOMC Minutes coming shortly. This morning's upside held no surprises, other than there being upside. Trending was likely to be limited to 3-4 points, and that's what was produced. An attraction at 2785.50 was touched, and its retest probed the 2786.00 bias-up signal before noon. Twice. Reacting down through the noon hour reached fresh post-open lows, coming withing 3 ticks of this afternoon's 2775.00 bias-down signal. Once again, like this morning, neither bias signal was touched while triggering no-bias. For all of this volatility, price action remains within the range of yesterday's final hour. Even reacting back up into the bias environment is now touching 2785.00. The bias-up signal is 2-1/2 points higher, coinciding with yesterday's high. It should define the window's upper-end if actually tested, which is possible in reaction to the 2:00 FOMC Minutes. Reacting down to FOMC Minutes is also possible. Reliability is diminished when multiple timing windows overlap each other, along with durable trending. I would continue keeping smaller expectations for moves until the pattern proves otherwise.

Wednesday afternoon's reaction to FOMC Minutes was the most volatile I've seen in years. Policy statements and Chairman Q&As are reliably opportunistic environments. So long as the committee plays rhetorical games with the gas pedal, the Minutes reaction should be wide-ranging again. The relatively narrow overnight range had warned before the open to expect only a 3-4 point trending attempt, if any. Further proof the market lacked sponsorship came from neither of the morning's bias signals even being attacked. The 2786.00 bias-up was tested at noon.

Now the rubber band was stretched, and the market was no longer in the middle of a dull range. The morning's bounce was followed by an 11-point reaction down through the noon hour attacked the 2775.00 bias-down. It was just a warm-up for the FOMC reaction which spiked up to attack 2791.00, and reacted down 17 points to attack the 2773.25 overnight low.

2786.00 was recovered in time for the last 90 minutes to fluctuate narrowly around it through the close. No "unfinished business" was left outstanding. And having essentially only fluctuated at or around Tuesday's final hour range, the session contained no predictive value. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2790.00 2790.00 ...would target 2796.75 2796.75 Bias-down: under 2779.50 2779.50 ...would target 2772.25 2772.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.