Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Sun night's open quickly tested 3986 and then retraced the 3975 Globex open. Reversing back up into Europe's opens was assisted by the Durable Goods headline that reacted up to 4015, then higher through Mon's open to 4025. Reversing down to 3986 was recovered temporarily up to 4006, before a temporary dip probed Fri's range down to 3978.
Overnight price points : Bouncing through Mon's close extended to 3998 resistance before dipping again through Europe's opens, and back through intraday lows to 3972. Rallying sharply since then is now probing earlier highs up to 4003.
Catalysts : Econ reports - loaded, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Pullback, Globex-flip.
Their influences : Mon afternoon's dip recovered from probing slightly into Fri's lower prior highs, and now so has the overnight dip recovered from a deeper probe into Fri's range -- which still held at or above Fri's close... Probing intraday lows overnight is now recovered back above the Globex open's range, which would be bullish for the morning if that recovery were maintained through the first 15 minutes.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : But for not yet closing above a prior relative high, and subject to month-end portfolio window undressing, there is growing potential for a significant morning-long rally. This morning's PLANNER video describes the setup visually. Mon's backing-and-filling held positive territory above Fri's close, and now overnight lower lows have also held above Fri's close -- while dipping deeper into Fri's range. Exiting the open above Mon's close would start to isolate the cumulative dips so that any post-open strength would be credible for trending up this morning. Back through 4019-4028 would put into play a test of last Tue's 4045 gap down.
Alternative : Not yet rallying out of the open would have been vulnerable to extending Mon's backing-and-filling deeper into Fri's range. But now that the setup would include the overnight dip's recovery, another delay or dip could launch a new downleg.
Levels : UP: 3998, 4018, 4044... DOWN: 3935, 3911, 3874.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Bouncing through Mon's close extended to 3998 resistance before dipping again through Europe's opens, and back through intraday lows to 3972. Recovering completely probed fresh highs up to 4004.
New price points : Almost all of the recovery was retraced into and out of the open to attack overnight lows at 3975. Its reaction up to 3993 was retraced enough to fluctuate around the 3980 bias-down signal.
Catalysts : Econ reports - loaded, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : noN-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-DOWN.
Their influences : The bias-down signal isn't required to define the window's lower-end, and it target doesn't require being tested, nor is an offsetting test of the bias-up signal in-play.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : The significance of closing above a prior relative high can't be discounted, and is the one feature that prevented the overnight rally from extending this morning. Duplicating the already-recovered overnight drop may be another bearish influence, as well as a pessimistic bias for month-end window dressing. Regardless, their influential would be more limited if the window were greeted from a position of strength. Entering the noon hour in rally mode could produce an afternoon rally that extends higher through Wed morning, back through 4019-4028 to test last Tue's 4045 gap down.
Alternative : More backing-and-filling isn't necessary at this stage of this bottoming pattern, if it is a bottoming pattern. So, more backing-and-filling this morning under the 3974 area and deeper into Fri's range without recovering into the noon hour would open the door to probing under Fri's lows.
Levels : UP: 3998, 4018, 4044... DOWN: 3935, 3911, 3874.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

TUE P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3997, targeting 4013.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3974, targeting 3963.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.