Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Thu's decline resumed at Globex's open and slid through midnight down to 3884. Rallying to 3921 settled back at Thu's 3910 low where the Payroll headline's knee-jerk reaction's blip-down to 3892 blipped-up to attack 3943 resistance. Eventually reacting down through Fri's open probed overnight lows lows to 3879. Bouncing again probed the 3911 bias-down signal's resistance up to 3941 but reversed into the noon hour, trapping longs for a ride down to 3846/ The last 2 hours ranged choppily sideways.
Overnight price points : "We're from the government, an we're here to help." Sun night's gap up began hovering at midnight around 3960 and greeted Europe's opens at 3971. Quite a different mood immediately began reversing back down, collapsing back to within 2-3 points of Fri's 3881 low before hovering again.
Catalysts : SVB contagion, rate hike pause, yield curve reversion, no econ reports, pre-CPI anxiousness.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Rollover.
Their influences : ES coverage rolled forward today from Mar to Jun. It presently trades at about a 32-point premium.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Sudden stability after a steep slide is not strength. This defines Friday's last 2 hours. Both of its lows had fulfilled and held separate sell signal targets at 3882-3885 (basis June). That made last night's surge easier, but it also creates a line in the sand that would be bearish if probed, especially if that probe weren't isolated coming out of the open or A.M. bias window. A morning crash isn't assured, but there won't be much opportunity to recover this afternoon if fresh lows weren't isolated already.
Alternative : Somehow recovering it the open to exit the first 15 minutes above 3925 would enable a morning rally.
Levels : UP: 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

Let's start the pre-open Update at 9:00 ET. Biden is scheduled to speak then, before banks open.

I'd like to think a bank holiday could have been announced yesterday if that were intended, and I'll still give that only 3% odds.

But even the 97% likelihood for calming words carries the 3% possibility that the words miss their mark. SVB depositors' backstop seems to have missed the mark, and ES has resumed the decline to sharply lower lows.

Again - vidiROOM subscribers should meet their 15 minutes earlier than scheduled at 9:00 ET.

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Sun night's gap up began hovering at midnight around 3960 and greeted Europe's opens at 3971. Quite a different mood immediately began reversing back down, collapsing back to within 2-3 points of Fri's 3881 low before hovering again.
New price points : Friday afternoon's sudden stability after a steep slide was not strength. Now its range has been probed considerably down to 3839. Its reaction up to 3908 was reversed to the 3872 bias-down target. But the 3888 bias-down signal is still being overlapped, even after having been triggered late.
Catalysts : SVB contagion, rate hike pause, yield curve reversion, no econ reports, pre-CPI anxiousness.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... Rollover.
Their influences : Already having met the bias-down target, exiting the bias window above its bias-up signal would invalidate the requirement to retrace any probe above its 3888 bias-down signal... ES coverage rolled forward today from Mar to Jun. It presently trades at about a 32-point premium.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Not seeing any rush to collapse under Fri's lows, but the burden of proof is on buyers, and they're not in any rush to recover Friday's lows, either. Being a bias-down window, probes above its 3888 bias-down signal are likely to fail. Fresh lows aren't required, but would target 3831-3835, if not also lower.
Alternative : A recovery today probably depends on a recovery this morning, e.g. exiting the bias window from 11:30-noon back in positive territory above 3897 if not also Fri's last relative high at 3921 could trigger a relief rally.
Levels : UP: 3921, 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

MON P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3933, targeting 3948.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3901, targeting 3888.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.