VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Bias - 7:43 AM
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Previously : Firming to the 3964 bias-up signal by midnight was reversed down sharply as Europe's opens saw bank stocks collapse. ES collapsed to 3871 and 3865 into and out of PPI. Bouncing through Wed's open to 3910 was retraced to 3975-3970 before and back into the noon hour. Surging out of the noon hour extended to 3930.
Overnight price points : Wed's last-minute surge soon extended to 3948. That's the lower-end of Tue night's range before it was ambushed by European bank crashes. Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight accelerated into Europe's opens, and extended lower to 3908.
Catalysts : Philly Fed, Claims, SVB+SB bailout, ECB.
Setups/Patterns : Globex-flip.
Their influences : Having probed yesterday's highs overnight, exiting the first 15 minutes under the 3922-3932 Globex open's range would signal a morning downtrend.
Premise : Closing AT 3922 instead of above or below it requires gapping above or below yesterday's late 3908-3928 range to signal this morning's intent. The Globex-flip setup will inform that outlook. Peaking overnight where the pre-European bank crash began neutralizes its resistance so that probing last night's highs would be credible for extending into the 3970's. Otherwise, rejecting yesterday's last-minute surge that prevented a hold-short could resume yesterday's decline targeting 3840 and 3815.
Alternative : Exiting the open only within yesterday's late 3908-3922 range -- let alone still overlapping the 3922-3932 Globex open's range -- would make trending less reliable, but more likely for its attempts to be retraced.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Stock Market Opening Strategy - 11:04 AM
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Previously : Wed's last-minute surge soon extended to 3948. That's the lower-end of Tue night's range before it was ambushed by European bank crashes. Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight accelerated into Europe's opens, and extended lower to 3908.
New price points : Pre-open's update described a likely post-open bounce to 3919-3922 that would react down, which the 3895 open's dip reversed to, and then rejected on the way back down to 3898. Recovering the 3911 bias-down signal was literally a minute too late to invalidate it, but didn't prevent surging through both bias-up parameters to 3954.
Catalysts : Philly Fed, Claims, SVB+SB bailout, FRC bailout, ECB hike/Q&A.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... Globex-flip.
Their influences : Having probed yesterday's highs overnight, exiting the first 15 minutes under the 3922-3932 Globex open's range signaled a morning downtrend, and offered confidence that reacting up from the gap down would be temporary.
Triggers/Tactics : Having met the bias-down target, recovering its 3911 signal through 10:30 would have invalidated bias-down. Instead it was recovered a minute too late for that clarity. So buyers must exceed the 3938 bias-up signal at 11:30 to invalidate the requirement to retrace the 3911 bias-down signal.
Alternative : Back under 3938 through 11:30 would target 3911.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3977, targeting 3992.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3963, targeting 3948.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Help - Mid-Day - 1:54 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Wed's last-minute surge soon extended to 3948. That's the lower-end of Tue night's range before it was ambushed by European bank crashes. Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight accelerated into Europe's opens, and extended into Thu's first 15 minutes to 3895. A bounce to 3919-3922 reversed back down to 3898. Recovering the 3911 bias-down signal was literally a minute too late to invalidate it.
New price points : The 1-minute delay didn't prevent surging, and invalidating bias-down by recovering its bias-down signal as the bias window lapsed. The noon hour was entered at 3979, where a pullback to 3958 was absorbed before exiting the noon hour at 3996.
Catalysts : Philly Fed, Claims, SVB+SB bailout, FRC bailout, ECB hike/Q&A.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TARGET MET.
Their influences : No requirement to extend higher, and the 3992 target is resistance, but bias-up remains vulnerable to extending through 3992 anyway and the 3977 bias-down signal should support the window's lower-end.
Triggers/Tactics : A sell signal attracted reinforcements to be relatively productive, but did not persist or form additional legs. That would have produced an afternoon range of backing-and-filling. Extending higher instead has opened the door to a relentless afternoon uptrend next targeting 4012.
Alternative : Upside momentum at this stage of this pattern depends on keeping optimism alive, so a pullback probing under 3974 could target 3933.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Bias Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Wed's night's 3948 reversed down through Europe's opens and into Thu's first 15 minutes to 3895. A bounce to 3919-3922 defined a range that met and triggered bias-down. But recovering its 3911 bias-down signal extended sharply higher through the noon hour to 3996. Its reaction down to 3970 recovered entirely up to 4000.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Quad Witch expiration, Banks - who's next?
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors, Expiration.
Their influences : Two days of impending illiquidity affect behaviors in predictable ways, despite expiration's wild card influence.
Premise : Thu's reversal from bias-down, to confirming its rejection, rewarded its sponsorship intraday. Closing above Tuesday's 3963 prior high and also back into the downtrending channel off the 6-week old high. One of the next challenges is to attract reinforcements Fri, probably by gapping up, if it happens at all, and then extending through 4012.
Alternative : The other challenge is to avoid an abrupt reversal down, which would suggest two things, both bearish: 1) Neutralizing SVB, CS, and FRC risks has been fully appreciated, and 2) Expiration's wild card influence overly-discounted that appreciation. Having trended up into Thu's close, gapping down under the afternoon's 3971 low would trigger a session-long decline.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4037, 4077... DOWN: 3980, 3933, 3901.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4005, targeting 4018.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3983, targeting 3968.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.