Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Already eking 6 points higher overnight had probed new highs up to 3966.00, which was extended to attack 3971.00 through the open. The balance of the morning held up until it was no longer required, then slid through the afternoon bias window down to 3943.00. Its reaction up to 3952.50 was mostly maintained to close largely unchanged. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Falling back down to 3946.00 had already begun consolidating by midnight. Flat-to-higher ranging since then around 3954.00 resistance has just now broken lower to probe under yesterday's late low down to 3939.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Any chances for a morning rally will depend on this pre-open slide greeting the open at, or holding, 3941.00-3943.00 -- where buyers were attracted late Monday and late yesterday. That, or dig a little deeper to satisfy post-open selling pressure down to 3931.00-3933.00. Anxiousness ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events could help to isolate early weakness, but triggering bias-down would be entirely credible for keeping the morning under pressure, too. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Relevant support held, but not rejected in time. The overnight slide was extended immediately through the open to test the 3931.00-3933.00 target entirely. Its reaction up to 3941.00 was retraced entirely. Another reaction probed 1 point higher -- but after 10:15, and the probe was already retraced by 10:30 -- so it only got one opportunity to reverse up. And bouncing any higher would be limited to testing the 3947.50 bias-down signal which had already triggered. The recovery attempt failed, and now next lower target at 3925.25-3927.50 has been tested entirely. Now another bounce is attempting to trigger back above 3932.00. And it again gets only one opportunity to gain traction and to attract reinforcements. The bias-down window limiting its upside potential is already within view of lapsing. Pre-FOMC anxiousness starts making it easier to retrace earlier ground back up, than to forge new ground below. But the trend meanwhile remains down, and fresh lows would likely target 3916.00.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS BIAS-UP: above 3938.75 signal would target 3948.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3930.25 signal would target 3923.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Awaiting FOMC events. Exiting this morning's bias window above 3935.00 would have isolated the morning's weakness. But 3935.00 was only being overlapped at noon. Exiting the noon hour above the open's 3939.00-3941.00 highs or triggering the afternoon's bias-up above 3938.75 would have isolated the interim dip. But the noon hour held tests of both bias signals to trigger no-bias. Now we're awaiting the FOMC events at 2:00 and 2:30. Multi-session volatility, i.e. not overlapping sessions, suggests multiple volatile reactions. Alternatively, a significant trend could get underway, in whichever direction. The bigger picture looking for fresh highs won't allow a significant downtrend. So we'll give rallies a benefit of the doubt for extending, and give bounce limits a benefit of the doubt if violated.

Wednesday afternoon's FOMC events were greeted by multi-session volatility. Whether or not it was multi-session trending, at least it was not consecutive overlapping intraday ranges. This made the reaction likely to have a very wide range, whether from bi-directional efforts, or from just a single trend. That volatility was actually relentless downtrending -- Tuesday's gap up had tested 3971.00, and reversed down to 3925.00 through Wednesday morning, without ever threatening the uptrend. Expending all of that selling pressure without gaining any traction for its effort made the FOMC reaction likely to be up, whether exclusively or ultimately. The FOMC statement's knee-jerk reaction surged sharply from 3932.00, corrected at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, and then resolved up to 3973.50 during Fed Chair Powell's Q&A. Unfinished business at 3974.75 was neutralized to within 3-6 ticks before the final hour retraced down to 3956.00. While still needing more information before forming, closing at trend highs Wednesday give the WedEX setup an actively bullish basis. And although less reliable for forming amid FOMC events, a bullish PM Traction setup suggests that Thursday morning's bias window will trend up. Gapping down doesn't affect either setup, unless the gapping down too much and trending down through the first 15 minutes. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED BIAS-UP: above 3970.50 signal would target 3981.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3955.50 signal would target 3945.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.