Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Sunday night's choppy ranging was flat-to-higher, until Monday's post-open surge probed above Friday's 2834.50-2836.50 highs to 2841.00. The bearish WedEX was in hibernation until the bias environment's last half-hour retraced it all by collapsing back down to the 2830.00 open. This isolated the morning's probe above of prior highs, which would have formed a top by closing back under the morning's 2829.50 low. Instead, the balance of the session rallied back up to Friday's 2834.50-2836.50 highs, and then back up to the morning's 2841.00 high. This satisfied the eventual higher close required by Friday's new trend high close. Overnight action's new info... Monday's late surge back up to the morning's highs didn't pause as it extended through the Globex open to 2843.50. A pullback attacked 2839.00 before recovering to a higher high attacking 2845.00. The 2841.75 bias-up signal provided a shelf of support as price consolidated through midnight, and also through Europe's opens. The range eventually finally broke, higher, sharply higher, now testing 2853.00. The overnight high includes complexity that qualifies it as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring eventual intraday retest, often the same day. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Two strong-handed sponsorships battled at the highs Monday, so it was unlikely Tuesday's pattern would just range narrowly. Monday morning's isolated probe avoided reversing momentum down, but the reversal attempt was made. Yesterday afternoon's buyers didn't gain traction for their efforts, but the overnight rally is going to ask intraday buyers to immediately reinforce yet higher prices. Gapping up above all prior highs will leave an anchor wanting to be retested from below, in case of an immediate post-open reversal down. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2848.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2847.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2853.25 and potentially 2857.00. Exiting the open above 2846.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2841.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Post-open weakness absorbed. The 2849.75 open immediately bounced to within 4 ticks of the 2853.00 overnight high, and another bounce came within 3 ticks. Just coming to within 3 ticks would suffice for neutralizing the attraction to calculable and RSI objectives, and 4 ticks for retesting a new high. The preference for a "new Globex trend extreme" is to actually touch it intraday, but that wouldn't have prevented sellers from gaining traction. They tried. A sell signal under 2847.00 was probed, but never by at least 4 ticks. And the 2847.75 bias-up target was retested several times as support, but it held through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. So, bias-up is renewed, next targeting 2853.50 and potentially 2857.00. A break maintained back under 2847.00 could test the 2841.75 bias-up signal as support during the bias-up environment without reversing the trend down.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2853.25 2859.00 ...would target 2861.50 2866.25 Bias-down: under 2845.25 2851.00 ...would target 2838.75 2845.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Intraday buyers bailing again. The open's sell signals didn't stick and the 2847.75 bias-up target was exceeded at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The 2853.50 renewed bias-up target was attacked to within 3 ticks neutralizing it. The 2853.00 "new Globex trend extreme" was not actually touched. Another downdraft tried to trigger a sell signal. It was productive down to 2844.75, but still contained to within its first 3 minutes.

And then time ran out, as the bias environment came within view of lapsing in 10-15 minutes. It began lapsing at 11:30 back at the 2849.75 open, ready to face the consequences of multiple failed attempts to break lower during a relevant timing window -- to reverse direction aggressively. So, the morning's 2857.00 renewed bias-up target was being probed to within 1 tick of 2859.00 into the noon hour.

Quickly fulfilling an aggressive consequence doesn't make that aggressive consequence's sponsorship strong-handed. The burden of proof was once again on intraday buyers. Yesterday morning's buyers were absorbed, and the afternoon buyers had gained no traction. Today's intraday rally was retraced 6 points to natural support at the 2853.00 overnight high. Just in time to be extra vulnerable to exacerbating the reaction to a China trade headline. It triggered a plunge back down to the morning's 2841.75 bias-up signal. And now the plunge has been retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, like most headline-triggered plunges and surges, to attack 2852.00. The 2851.00 bias-down signal has held to trigger late bias-down.

Now two intraday rallies seem to have been sponsored by weak hands. The distribution ahead of tomorrow afternoon's FOMC events suggests at least a very volatile reaction.

Monday night's rally had formed a "new Globex trend extreme" at 2853.00 and gapped up to 2849.75. The balance of the morning ranged choppily sideways down to 2845.00. The bias environment lapsed by surging 15 points to attack 2859.00 as noon began. Finally, some intraday trending. Apparently, trending by the same intraday sponsorship that had failed to uphold Monday morning's probe above Friday's highs. The rally was already fading to 2853.00 when a China trade headline triggered a collapse to 2841.50. A bounce to 2852.00 returned to session lows as the bias environment began lapsing. Sellers had not gained traction through the bias environment exit and final hour's entry. But the 3:10-3:20 proxy window trended down to fresh session lows, a combination that usually produces dramatic follow-through at some point before the close. In fact, the position-squaring window quickly tested 2829.00. The close bounced back up to 2840.00. Tuesday's gap up was filled by the China trade headline's reaction, after barely touching Monday's range. It is not "unfinished business." More significant may be the two consecutive sessions of distribution ahead of Wednesday afternoon's FOMC events, which suggests a very opportunistic trading environment. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2836.75 2842.25 ...would target 2842.50 2848.00 Bias-down: under 2822.75 2828.50 ...would target 2816.00 2821.75 Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.