Realtime Day Trading Trends and Signals - 03-20-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Last night''s Training Session
"Strategy & Tactics" is linked here

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s session was spent exclusively in negative territory. Bias-down triggered late, and after already having tested its bias-down target. But the bias-down target was retested, and eventually probed by a couple of points. Firming through the noon hour wasn''t retraced, but the afternoon only ranged choppily sideways. No unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action''s new info...
There was never any momentum to initially probing under yesterday afternoon''s choppy range. Yesterday morning''s 2076.50 lows were attacked to within 5 ticks. That hesitation soon ended, and the balance of the night has trended back up to now pierce yesterday morning''s 2089.50 post-open high.

If, then...
Yesterday morning''s post-open high formed in reaction to having tested support at its bias-down target. That high was strong enough resistance to prevent further recovery, and to force a retest of the bias-down support. Testing it now can also be considered a test of this morning''s 2088.00 bias-up signal. Not only triggering bias-up, but also gapping up and immediately extending higher, may be today''s only path to resuming the rally. This being a Friday when the morning''s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, probing Wednesday''s highs is not unlikely. There is no particular bearish consequence to this pattern not maintaining a gap up -- worse, the balance of the session might only repeat yesterday afternoon''s choppy sideways ranging.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open back under 2086.50 would be much less likely to trigger bias-up.

All biased-up, with nowhere to go.

The overnight rally from 2080.00 had extended to 2097.50 before a pre-open dip slid to 2092.00. That didn''t take the pressure off of immediately extending higher as proof of resuming the rally today. But it did make trending down through the open more difficult.

Trending down through expiration''s open would have been very bearish. The alternative isn''t necessarily bullish -- at least, not very bullish.

The pre-open dip didn''t extend post-open, and initially reacted up 4 points to 2096.00. But the 2095.00 bias-up target held repeated tests as resistance through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal.

Now a late break higher has touched 2100.00, fulfilling what would have been the renewed bias-up target. Overbought RSIs at Wednesday''s high have been neutralized. Back under 2095.00 might not be the precise inflection point, but it would make the balance of the session vulnerable to trending down.

. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2108.75
2100.75
...would target 2114.25
2106.25
Bias-down: under 2103.00
2095.00
...would target 2098.00
2090.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap... ANNOUNCEMENT: This daily blog post will soon expand to include current patterns and parameters covering the 20-year bond, gasoline, and more currencies (those which we currently review during the daily Tour and Wrap) -- also, annotated charts! Please send me any other requests.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday''s gap up probed Wednesday''s intraday high up to 1.0895, but reacted back down under 1.0855 resistance. Almost any delay in extending higher out of the weekend would be likely to retest 1.0590 and potentially lower.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After holding Thursday''s dip to the 1161.00 buy signal, a second consecutive higher confirming close was produced easily by Friday''s session-long rally to test 1187.00. Sunday night / Monday will be interesting, already being within $10 of the rally''s 1197.00 target, with the confirmed buy signal requiring at least (or only) one more eventual higher close, and almost $50 off of the week''s lows.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already outperforming Gold, Friday''s session-long rally confirmed Thursday''s breakout, targeting 17.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday''s reaction down from Wednesday night''s 164-07 high held its 163-00 pullback limit, although a lower low would have been allowed. Taht wasn''t necessarily too much impatient optimism from a contrarian perspective, although gapping up already Friday and probing fresh highs up to 164-12 does urge caution. No sell signal is triggered on same day as a new high, and extending higher would next target 164-26 area.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from Wednesday''s late surge had retraced to its breakout point Thursday, whose retest overnight launched a surge back to Wednesday''s intraday high. Friday''s open gapped up, which is not appropriate for resuming a corrected breakout. The bounce might extend further, through 47.50 to test 49.55, but back under 45.85 would signal another downleg already underway.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After reacting negatively to Thursday EIA report, the overnight rally gapped up to quickly fill the gap back to Wednesday''s 2.92 close. Too quickly. The balance of the morning reversed down to probe under Thursday''s low testing 2.77 support. Any further delay in resuming the rally would make a retest of recent lows likely.